NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4c214bf09e5cf8044ed6e519b8943971959e47682b1df28d4431a9a1afb9ffb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Trail Blazersof Nuggets, Trail Blazers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,454
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,252
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,454 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9e2…9631backed Nuggets | 50c | 4,002$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…d90bbacked Trail Blazers | 54c | 2,763$1,492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,270.98 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Trail Blazers | 50c | 1,412$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.8 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Trail Blazers | 46c | 1,361$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.4 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9a…893bbacked Nuggets | 46c | 1,321$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.66 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Trail Blazers | 50c | 1,250$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Nuggets | 48c | 1,249$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.83 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…8f58backed Nuggets | 55c | 1,128$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.24 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Trail Blazers | 50c | 1,086$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Trail Blazers | 50c | 1,050$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 971$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.08 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Nuggets | 50c | 896$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.74 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…1567backed Nuggets | 46c | 657$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Nuggets | 48c | 637.27$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.41 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…821cbacked Trail Blazers | 54c | 555.56$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.56 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0647…da66backed Nuggets | 48c | 441.67$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Nuggets | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 930 | 36.5%339 W · 591 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Nuggets | 10c | 260$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 401 | 33.4%134 W · 267 L | +27.0wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2f…0b3bbacked Nuggets | 60c | 260$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Trail Blazers | 50c | 252$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Trail Blazers | 53c | 250$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 956 | 41.7%399 W · 557 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked Trail Blazers | 51c | 204.48$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Trail Blazers | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Nuggets | 46c | 177$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.42 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Trail Blazers | 51c | 158$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.78 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets | 51c | 143$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.88 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6941…efd5backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -7.1wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd44…b2e2backed Nuggets | 48c | 112.5$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca29…996fbacked Nuggets | 46c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Nuggets | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Nuggets | 66c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…581bbacked Nuggets | 48c | 53.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 91 | 65.9%60 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Nuggets | 49c | 53.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefcf…2a46backed Nuggets | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fd…41c1backed Nuggets | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Trail Blazers | 51c | 39.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +4.1wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +46%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcaba…ba7cbacked Nuggets | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -6.0wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)this page
- Nuggets vs. Trail BlazersTrail Blazers won
- Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 235.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 236.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 238.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 239.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 240.5Under won
- Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)Trail Blazers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.