MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4d942cb89fda4fc276524b2511db8207b9af3e0bb9cc1e9fea9018bf197f9ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof San Diego Padres, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,614
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,239
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,614 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Diego Padres | 36c | 7,212$2,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,615.85 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa77…15a5backed San Diego Padres | 77c | 6,466$4,979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,487.33 | 232 | 55.6%129 W · 103 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 5,555$3,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,555.18 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 26c | 5,431$1,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,398.28 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Diego Padres | 61c | 2,862$1,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,112.79 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 2,750$1,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,759.99 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed San Diego Padres | 36c | 2,507$902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,604.23 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 1,110$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.4 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 1,024$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.36 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 957.53$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.82 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 544$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.16 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 489.23$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.22 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 390$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.6 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Diego Padres | 35c | 371.28$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.33 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 325.39$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.37 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4490…54d7backed San Diego Padres | 76c | 320$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 25c | 274.34$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.06 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 34c | 251.92$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.25 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed San Diego Padres | 33c | 212.91$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.65 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 123.08$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…faeabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 123.08$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 404 | 49.3%199 W · 205 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 66c | 106.06$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 103.13$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked San Diego Padres | 36c | 102.35$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.5 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 99.98$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.99 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 29c | 98.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed San Diego Padres | 36c | 97.44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.36 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 74c | 93$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.82 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed San Diego Padres | 68c | 78.51$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 70$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0a…75acbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 465 | 46%214 W · 251 L | -17.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed San Diego Padres | 36c | 54.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 273 | 45.4%124 W · 149 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa278…3369backed San Diego Padres | 76c | 50.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked San Diego Padres | 36c | 50.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 34c | 46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…d18fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 453 | 48.6%220 W · 233 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed San Diego Padres | 36c | 41.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 445 | 53.5%238 W · 207 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 35.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed San Diego Padres | 35c | 32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 312 | 50%156 W · 156 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed San Diego Padres | 36c | 28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed San Diego Padres | 36c | 28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 25.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 424 | 48.1%204 W · 220 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 21.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eef…5275backed San Diego Padres | 77c | 21.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 78cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked San Diego Padres | 71c | 17.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 15.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 11.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 12.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego PadresYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.