MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f1cd216aeed09c9d4c5d7c3ff913196d7d703b17ba4bcd208bb814c75d16591
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,436
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Over | 56c | 10,714$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,000 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 60c | 9,781$5,862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,919.35 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Over | 56c | 9,368$5,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,246.14 | 489 | 52.8%258 W · 231 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 44c | 7,804$3,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,370.26 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70dc…1dfdbacked Over | 49c | 5,827$2,845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,845.19 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | -17.3wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 38c | 5,604$2,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,125.8 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 44c | 3,587$1,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,006.13 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84a3…44dcbacked Under | 47c | 2,496$1,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,323.55 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…b20cbacked Under | 44c | 2,232$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,249.65 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 54c | 1,997$1,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$925.41 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 44c | 1,827$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015.12 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 45c | 1,753$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$972.3 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecc…7850backed Under | 46c | 1,637$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.96 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 44c | 1,379$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.58 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 44c | 1,282$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.28 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 57c | 1,158$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.87 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 45c | 1,145$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.95 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 54c | 1,085$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.9 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 38c | 1,022$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.31 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 44c | 952.95$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.68 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Over | 57c | 877.19$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 660 | 50.2%331 W · 329 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 38c | 814.53$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.52 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 44c | 730$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.8 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 47c | 596.47$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.53 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 47c | 450.47$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.79 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 55c | 443.04$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.67 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 57c | 411.01$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.28 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 48c | 372.69$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.58 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 73c | 321.45$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.38 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Over | 44c | 231.51$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.38 | 405 | 54.8%222 W · 183 L | +17.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Under | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Over | 45c | 221.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked Under | 15c | 200$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 43c | 187.37$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.8 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 53c | 179$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.71 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Under | 45c | 177.78$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.78 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Over | 49c | 148.8$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.44 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf10…b9b0backed Over | 38c | 134.26$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.02 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 53c | 130.06$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Over | 48c | 129.33$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.55 | 238 | 51.3%122 W · 116 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Under | 26c | 127.45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.61 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 49c | 111.05$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.64 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…4b22backed Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b1…4625backed Over | 38c | 83.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 37cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Under | 46c | 77.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…f5eebacked Under | 45c | 77.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe897…0b3bbacked Over | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Over | 38c | 72.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x115e…5019backed Over | 62c | 70$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe246…dedcbacked Over | 43c | 69.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 267 | 53.9%144 W · 123 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…8436backed Over | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…62bebacked Under | 50c | 55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 151 | 45.7%69 W · 82 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Over | 54c | 54.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Over | 44c | 49.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 314 | 46.8%147 W · 167 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Over | 66c | 47.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 377 | 47.2%178 W · 199 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…d0c7backed Under | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59ab…18c6backed Over | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03dd…49c8backed Over | 31c | 42.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 48c | 41.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250f…4fc6backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -17.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 43c | 38.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 44c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Under | 48c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x829a…a748backed Over | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 187 | 51.9%97 W · 90 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bef…5f5dbacked Over | 43c | 28.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed Over | 38c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a62…5247backed Under | 46c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 140 | 47.9%67 W · 73 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 53c | 23.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 57c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf88b…0ed2backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd62…344abacked Over | 57c | 19.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 11.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 12.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego PadresYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.