MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf56f8276428bf8fc9c1d9fac0750a3467919e3b8ca08cbfabe9f0579e187788f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof Cleveland Guardians, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,690
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,669
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,690 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Athletics | 11c | 1,993$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,776.38 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Athletics | 59c | 1,711$1,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 538.87$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.94 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8345…5cadbacked Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 333$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.53 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Athletics | 79c | 329.49$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.38 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 319.99$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.99 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Athletics | 60c | 183$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.2 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 182.82$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.62 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Cleveland Guardians | 42c | 119.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 117.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.37 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…bdc1backed Cleveland Guardians | 42c | 117$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.13 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Athletics | 72c | 110$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Athletics | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…ceafbacked Athletics | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 226 | 53.1%120 W · 106 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Cleveland Guardians | 28c | 81.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 841 | 40.2%338 W · 503 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Athletics | 61c | 62.4$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 60.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Athletics | 58c | 60.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Cleveland Guardians | 21c | 50.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 169 | 47.3%80 W · 89 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…62eabacked Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 242 | 48.8%118 W · 124 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…0afabacked Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Athletics | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84bb…25d3backed Athletics | 72c | 41.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 128 | 46.1%59 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Cleveland Guardians | 27c | 37.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 143 | 58.7%84 W · 59 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x323c…2fa4backed Cleveland Guardians | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Athletics | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Athletics | 59c | 29.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Athletics | 60c | 16.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Athletics | 71c | 14.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. AthleticsAthletics won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. AthleticsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.