TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Athleticsof Cleveland Guardians, Athletics
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$336,678
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$345,405

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $336,678 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 252 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa8e0…ad50backed Cleveland Guardians55c72,502$39,876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,875.9431149.2%153 W · 158 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Athletics47c37,500$17,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,874.9577053.9%415 W · 355 L+8.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Athletics44c31,893$14,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,702.752,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16bb…8492backed Cleveland Guardians53c30,111$15,959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,958.8986548.7%421 W · 444 L-8.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2dc1…b33cbacked Cleveland Guardians48c22,570$10,782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,781.9626056.9%148 W · 112 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Athletics45c22,399$10,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,353.333,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Athletics45c22,222$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,222.2298149.9%490 W · 491 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6498…8910backed Cleveland Guardians62c20,001$12,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,420.651756.5%292 W · 225 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Cleveland Guardians52c14,074$7,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,318.411,66050.1%832 W · 828 L-22.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3df…82fabacked Athletics47c12,452$5,902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,550.0548850.2%245 W · 243 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd14…d62abacked Athletics48c10,438$5,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,427.524344.4%108 W · 135 L-11.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ef5…dc05backed Cleveland Guardians42c10,255$4,306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,305.53837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-23.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked Cleveland Guardians56c7,094$3,972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,972.4312754.3%69 W · 58 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Cleveland Guardians5c7,015$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.781,11349%545 W · 568 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Athletics46c5,435$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,934.7428042.1%118 W · 162 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Cleveland Guardians0c4,800$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.58762.9%25 W · 851 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcbf…d37fbacked Cleveland Guardians49c4,181$2,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,053.749153.8%49 W · 42 L+7.9wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbf11…c679backed Athletics45c4,000$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,20028944.3%128 W · 161 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Cleveland Guardians53c3,634$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,920.54,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Cleveland Guardians56c3,000$1,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,666.091,06348.2%512 W · 551 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Athletics58c2,875$1,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,207.271,49958.9%883 W · 616 L+75.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Athletics58c2,688$1,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,136.952,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Cleveland Guardians54c2,500$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3501,29250.2%648 W · 644 L+18.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Cleveland Guardians39c2,499$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983.498,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Athletics45c2,222$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,222.11,01048.1%486 W · 524 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Cleveland Guardians42c2,127$893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$893.361,21340.5%491 W · 722 L-32.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Athletics49c2,121$1,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,079.279,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d98…4d2dbacked Cleveland Guardians53c2,102$1,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1142548%12 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Athletics47c2,037$957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,079.4377951.1%398 W · 381 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Cleveland Guardians54c2,017$1,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,085.651,51551.1%774 W · 741 L+7.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Athletics77c1,920$1,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.298,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3354…5042backed Cleveland Guardians53c1,887$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020350.2%102 W · 101 L-8.8wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd5d8…e9a1backed Cleveland Guardians53c1,879$996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9963237.5%12 W · 20 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick45cpaid+9.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Athletics57c1,824$1,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781.7712,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c4…3e8fbacked Cleveland Guardians33c1,795$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.45236.5%19 W · 33 L-6.9wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-26.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Athletics59c1,656$981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$674.646,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Athletics47c1,617$766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.371,45642.7%622 W · 834 L-39.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Athletics47c1,612$758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$854.452,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Athletics48c1,511$725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.742,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed Cleveland Guardians56c1,437$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804.638648.8%42 W · 44 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Cleveland Guardians54c1,400$756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75615942.1%67 W · 92 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-2.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Cleveland Guardians51c1,256$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.471,28947.2%609 W · 680 L-18.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bd8…aeabbacked Athletics44c1,144$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640.8716845.8%77 W · 91 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Cleveland Guardians7c1,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701,17329%340 W · 833 L-0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Cleveland Guardians54c972$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.881,52148.6%739 W · 782 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Cleveland Guardians53c926.1$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.8344953.7%241 W · 208 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Athletics55c903.7$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.994,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc521…b46abacked Cleveland Guardians56c875$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4907948.1%38 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8284…072fbacked Cleveland Guardians34c850$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.95450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-17.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Cleveland Guardians28c842.09$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.6412037.5%45 W · 75 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2dc0…e57dbacked Cleveland Guardians4c792.96$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3026315.6%41 W · 222 L-11.9wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-49.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Athletics75c790$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.147589.1%423 W · 52 L+84.9wins+0.18per pick71cpaid+25%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x0cef…fa91backed Athletics47c690.51$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.9714647.3%69 W · 77 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x782b…ff64backed Athletics53c683.33$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32250860.2%306 W · 202 L+29.7wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+6.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x62bc…461ebacked Cleveland Guardians55c659.34$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.642441.7%10 W · 14 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-26.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Athletics47c609.44$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.971,13742.6%484 W · 653 L+10.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Athletics48c600$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31285952.6%452 W · 407 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb2b…e828backed Athletics45c533.33$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.3316844%74 W · 94 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Athletics56c528.06$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.542,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Athletics61c523.2$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.051,07558.3%627 W · 448 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Athletics45c517$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.3592054%497 W · 423 L+23.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca20…7b68backed Athletics64c505.21$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.8237143.9%163 W · 208 L-21.4wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-20.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed Cleveland Guardians53c500$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26519248.4%93 W · 99 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Cleveland Guardians50c500$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24859150.3%297 W · 294 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Athletics45c494.45$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.836,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Cleveland Guardians3c453.26$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.955852.1%12 W · 573 L-1.7wins0.00per pick2cpaid-45.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdded…13a2backed Athletics47c451.49$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.5920258.4%118 W · 84 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x45dd…7b56backed Athletics45c427.47$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.1116242.6%69 W · 93 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6c4…df5fbacked Athletics47c400$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21239850.3%200 W · 198 L+0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f6a…9888backed Athletics51c385$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.4778649.1%386 W · 400 L+3.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc7e9…ee46backed Cleveland Guardians41c374.04$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.522733.3%9 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-19.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Athletics56c368.35$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.622,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72f3…d396backed Athletics45c366.67$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.6750647%238 W · 268 L-21.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xba14…b792backed Athletics46c364.99$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.0944643.3%193 W · 253 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Athletics45c361$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.551,56951.1%801 W · 768 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6676…22f3backed Athletics45c333.33$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.3352947.4%251 W · 278 L-24.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x783b…dc4cbacked Athletics51c314.47$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.7460941.4%252 W · 357 L-22.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbca…ca8dbacked Athletics49c306.12$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.1243247%203 W · 229 L-19.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x62a1…d53ebacked Cleveland Guardians48c304.57$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1473735.1%13 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d7f…86d2backed Cleveland Guardians10c300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3050337.2%187 W · 316 L-42.3wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-28.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Cleveland Guardians54c274$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.351,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Athletics61c269.82$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.741,63055.2%899 W · 731 L+2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d57…18ddbacked Athletics45c266.67$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.6711947.1%56 W · 63 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd991…faeabacked Athletics45c266.67$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.6740449.3%199 W · 205 L-13.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ddc…e874backed Cleveland Guardians23c265.41$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.219442.3%82 W · 112 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Cleveland Guardians53c264.15$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14040348.4%195 W · 208 L-18.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Athletics47c258.25$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.681,43550%717 W · 718 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Athletics59c250$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.51,86552%970 W · 895 L+50.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe88…67a8backed Athletics57c245.95$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.0797050.7%492 W · 478 L+13.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Cleveland Guardians42c243.55$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.191,34547.7%642 W · 703 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea6e…7c46backed Athletics45c233.33$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.3367449.4%333 W · 341 L-28.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a0a…75acbacked Athletics45c226.67$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.6746546%214 W · 251 L-17.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc822…650bbacked Athletics46c216.3$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.86756.7%38 W · 29 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9712…0c47backed Cleveland Guardians56c210$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.610240.2%41 W · 61 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d62…eaf3backed Athletics45c208.89$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.8919642.9%84 W · 112 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc0d…8bcabacked Athletics48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.3319348.7%94 W · 99 L+15.6wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+16%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Athletics62c203.86$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.4778146.4%362 W · 419 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7479…e171backed Athletics58c203.25$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.5116947.3%80 W · 89 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c58…e330backed Athletics51c202.08$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.9988053.8%473 W · 407 L+41.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Athletics47c200$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1072,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.