MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x317db26d62f520ad9677df61dd4c677ba26d9b05a14d876c6fc90448521bda09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,328
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,952
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,328 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 53c | 5,540$2,931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,930.78 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 49c | 3,200$1,568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,568 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 3,082$1,454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,628.04 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x994b…c047backed Over | 49c | 2,995$1,476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,476.2 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 51c | 2,545$1,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,247.05 | 1,586 | 48.5%770 W · 816 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d8…e9a1backed Under | 54c | 1,826$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.93 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Over | 46c | 1,433$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.05 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 51c | 1,190$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.1 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 55c | 1,068$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.44 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 45c | 1,060$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.3 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfd…a4bbbacked Under | 53c | 943$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.21 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Under | 51c | 937.21$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.23 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 50c | 895$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.5 | 1,301 | 50.2%653 W · 648 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 52c | 855.56$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.67 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Over | 48c | 837.65$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 47c | 801.51$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.72 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 47c | 783.01$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.01 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 49c | 710$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.8 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 53c | 658.98$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.72 | 274 | 49.3%135 W · 139 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 48c | 563.73$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.59 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 52c | 451$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.97 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 46c | 340$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.4 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b55…1167backed Under | 77c | 259.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.87 | 108 | 60.2%65 W · 43 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 50c | 223.88$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.91 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 48c | 210$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 1,445 | 50%723 W · 722 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked Under | 70c | 199.99$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 132 | 48.5%64 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 53c | 199.67$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.06 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 30c | 176.08$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.43 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 47c | 170.21$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce8…fc49backed Over | 47c | 159.57$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 52c | 122.51$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.31 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Over | 47c | 121$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.87 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 51c | 120$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.22 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…2726backed Under | 52c | 114.46$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.46 | 230 | 51.7%119 W · 111 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe22a…cb75backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 269 | 48.7%131 W · 138 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c97…82adbacked Over | 48c | 98.75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed Over | 47c | 86.41$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.61 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 54c | 78.77$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.24 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 43c | 63.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Over | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 428 | 49.1%210 W · 218 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…f3c5backed Under | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Under | 52c | 59.88$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.01 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Under | 47c | 57.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.44 | 169 | 47.3%80 W · 89 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Under | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 57c | 53.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…b9d8backed Under | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 151 | 38.4%58 W · 93 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 47c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cb…a917backed Over | 48c | 41.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 207 | 51.2%106 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 47c | 41.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…8ffabacked Under | 47c | 41.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 54c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 143 | 58.7%84 W · 59 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Under | 53c | 25.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 51c | 23.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 306 | 52%159 W · 147 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Under | 53c | 19.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Under | 72c | 16.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. AthleticsAthletics won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. AthleticsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.