Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf57406c663400cdf446e69b5d81a49db88c2affc5b3289f2473bd95a116b771d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,022
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,758
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,022 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 25c | 254.61$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.97 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 22c | 198.26$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.16 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 12c | 197.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.59 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e1…a2bfbacked Yes | 73c | 192.5$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.3 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 181.46$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.14 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 32c | 180.51$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.08 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 40c | 159.35$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.78 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 29c | 125.27$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.31 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 20c | 115.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.18 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab8a…8dc7backed Yes | 22c | 113.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.63 | 133 | 22.6%30 W · 103 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea8…e6cfbacked Yes | 31c | 113.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.42 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 49c | 110.37$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed No | 18c | 110$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 23c | 107.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.91 | 959 | 19.7%189 W · 770 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 46c | 102.09$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.07 | 620 | 44%273 W · 347 L | +25.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 17c | 97.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.07 | 189 | 50.8%96 W · 93 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 74c | 96.09$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 20c | 92.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.44 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked Yes | 22c | 85.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.29 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 29c | 77.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.06 | 553 | 42.9%237 W · 316 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 64c | 76.58$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.33 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 15c | 74.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 28c | 73.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.83 | 2,743 | 29.7%816 W · 1,927 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 40c | 72.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 353 | 48.7%172 W · 181 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 67.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc801…cefebacked No | 46c | 65.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x672c…6942backed No | 46c | 65.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf8…8634backed No | 46c | 65.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…66f2backed Yes | 23c | 55.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.48 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 50.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.27 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa739…e31abacked No | 77c | 48.61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae4…bd41backed No | 74c | 45.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02f6…5047backed No | 65c | 44.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd368…0a43backed Yes | 46c | 41.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…a2cebacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 94 | 33%31 W · 63 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a23…fd22backed Yes | 38c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 35c | 37.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 2,265 | 39.6%896 W · 1,369 L | -56.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 33c | 37.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 1,145 | 63.5%727 W · 418 L | +30.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 69c | 34.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 560 | 67.1%376 W · 184 L | +26.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…0a17backed No | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd3…e777backed Yes | 70c | 31.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…a2f8backed No | 76c | 30.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 118 | 72.9%86 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 43c | 28.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c6…c7bfbacked No | 66c | 28.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…ff74backed No | 63c | 24.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc744…955cbacked No | 66c | 23.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 77c | 21.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked Yes | 54c | 20.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b6…129dbacked No | 65c | 19.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on April 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 10°C or below on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 11°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 12°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.