Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Pegula vs Swiatek
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf59028a00edff2acdebff2c2657ffeab35167c7ae8af17406af38790aec80a6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pegulaof Pegula, Swiatek
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,613
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,629
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,613 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Pegula | 74c | 15,308$11,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,965.69 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a1…bf4bbacked Swiatek | 22c | 12,393$2,696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,696.07 | 114 | 50.9%58 W · 56 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dae…72febacked Swiatek | 1c | 2,857$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe98c…8792backed Swiatek | 24c | 2,124$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.75 | 304 | 40.5%123 W · 181 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd403…a817backed Swiatek | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Pegula | 35c | 1,090$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.21 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Swiatek | 65c | 885.54$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.13 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e8…8ef4backed Swiatek | 12c | 793.65$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.24 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e9…caedbacked Pegula | 76c | 789.47$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.47 | 92 | 67.4%62 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Pegula | 55c | 785.53$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.25 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…2101backed Swiatek | 20c | 720$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 1,026 | 50%513 W · 513 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec7b…917ebacked Pegula | 75c | 669.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.4 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Pegula | 76c | 556$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.44 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…86e1backed Swiatek | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 149 | 21.5%32 W · 117 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7db…d23abacked Swiatek | 66c | 362.62$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.28 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Pegula | 80c | 343.58$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.72 | 3,661 | 45.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5465…8b19backed Swiatek | 21c | 340.9$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.59 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c8…b949backed Swiatek | 24c | 312.5$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 220 | 59.5%131 W · 89 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca3…9613backed Swiatek | 76c | 307.89$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 205 | 65.4%134 W · 71 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805f…54a4backed Swiatek | 70c | 299.99$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.49 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2db3…667abacked Pegula | 47c | 236.1$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.9 | 254 | 48.4%123 W · 131 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x307e…a827backed Swiatek | 24c | 234.33$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.24 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacab…28bcbacked Swiatek | 46c | 218.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98f9…5cd9backed Swiatek | 46c | 206.52$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Pegula | 36c | 195.42$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.42 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Pegula | 66c | 180.68$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.4 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Pegula | 34c | 169.15$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.64 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Pegula | 76c | 165.04$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.61 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b9…434bbacked Swiatek | 16c | 159.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Swiatek | 17c | 151$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Swiatek | 51c | 126.59$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.36 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b34…a646backed Swiatek | 34c | 123.86$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Swiatek | 52c | 103.03$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.77 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe116…6850backed Swiatek | 21c | 86.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Pegula | 80c | 66.3$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 427 | 48.7%208 W · 219 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d9…4968backed Swiatek | 36c | 62.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 126 | 41.3%52 W · 74 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc99…e38bbacked Swiatek | 68c | 58.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.81 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56dd…83d5backed Swiatek | 24c | 56.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Swiatek | 56c | 49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Pegula | 72c | 46.36$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b57…bf08backed Pegula | 37c | 39.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +7.0wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Pegula | 76c | 39.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 788 | 57.1%450 W · 338 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Swiatek | 52c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Swiatek | 62c | 26.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Swiatek | 49c | 25.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 625 | 49.6%310 W · 315 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Swiatek | 59c | 24.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 578 | 45.7%264 W · 314 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4f…000ebacked Pegula | 73c | 18.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…0445backed Swiatek | 66c | 16.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 73cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Pegula vs Swiatekthis page
- Cincinnati Open: Jessica Pegula vs Iga SwiatekJessica Pegula won
- Jessica Pegula vs. Iga Swiatek: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Pegula vs. Swiatek: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Pegula vs. Swiatek: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Set 2 Winner: Pegula vs SwiatekSwiatek won
- Set Handicap: Swiatek (-1.5) vs Pegula (+1.5)Pegula won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.