TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs TNC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
TNCof Betclic Apogee Esports, TNC
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$100,370
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$119,053

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,370 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Betclic Apogee Esports59c13,000$7,605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,60584454.3%458 W · 386 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked TNC42c10,030$4,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,852.691,01152.3%529 W · 482 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Betclic Apogee Esports41c9,561$3,911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,911.32,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa80c…5a6dbacked TNC59c7,563$4,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,070.435759.6%34 W · 23 L-0.3wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Betclic Apogee Esports42c6,618$2,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,776.973,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xda1a…3407backed TNC56c3,948$2,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,755.3228960.6%175 W · 114 L+14.1wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7069…325bbacked TNC41c3,000$1,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,77094645.8%433 W · 513 L+18.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd97…a2c9backed TNC53c2,586$1,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,207.973748.6%18 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b50…180ebacked TNC52c2,500$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2002152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Betclic Apogee Esports41c2,393$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990.566,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36f9…4df8backed TNC54c2,325$1,254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,070.9918356.3%103 W · 80 L+6.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3db4…d69bbacked TNC50c2,227$1,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,113.4375056.8%426 W · 324 L+47.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x56d6…4404backed TNC49c2,203$1,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,113.5764058.1%372 W · 268 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Betclic Apogee Esports44c1,326$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.087,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4e1…d80bbacked Betclic Apogee Esports39c1,306$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.511846.6%55 W · 63 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed TNC59c1,285$756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.915,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8ec8…e91abacked Betclic Apogee Esports48c1,232$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.442832.1%9 W · 19 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-31.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Betclic Apogee Esports46c1,200$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.955,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b21…4b63backed TNC59c1,110$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.9111947.9%57 W · 62 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Betclic Apogee Esports46c1,041$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.971,61846.8%758 W · 860 L-28.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0561…51c7backed TNC61c974.5$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.581942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe252…5714backed Betclic Apogee Esports23c937.59$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.9423335.2%82 W · 151 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+15.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed TNC60c826.53$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.8522750.2%114 W · 113 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f17…7035backed TNC56c824.63$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.9745465.9%299 W · 155 L+20.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c44…4b9dbacked Betclic Apogee Esports35c660.2$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2305226.9%14 W · 38 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-21.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1982…bc7bbacked Betclic Apogee Esports55c642.85$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.9531845.3%144 W · 174 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked TNC70c635.99$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.252,34942.5%998 W · 1,351 L-72.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa5e…1468backed Betclic Apogee Esports45c590.26$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.628540%34 W · 51 L-8.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-17.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked TNC64c560$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.963,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed TNC46c523.62$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.0816945%76 W · 93 L+10.0wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed TNC62c518.77$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.624,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Betclic Apogee Esports50c500$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.55,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d54…4d13backed TNC54c499.98$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.996456.3%36 W · 28 L+5.7wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+22%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4008…a334backed TNC77c477$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.22850%4 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-30.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x882a…cde2backed TNC48c459.64$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.2816850.6%85 W · 83 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf376…516cbacked TNC74c457$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.821478.6%11 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick71cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf868…3b45backed Betclic Apogee Esports47c423.09$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.911841.5%49 W · 69 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae0d…a507backed Betclic Apogee Esports50c411.13$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2062352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+29.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed TNC57c372.87$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.0878043.7%341 W · 439 L-21.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bac…d241backed Betclic Apogee Esports45c368.76$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.4440639.4%160 W · 246 L-1.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa094…3f07backed TNC44c366$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.9624942.2%105 W · 144 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked TNC49c364.69$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.142,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9563…243bbacked Betclic Apogee Esports53c339.62$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1801154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+18.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7d5…306dbacked Betclic Apogee Esports59c336.2$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1972157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+16%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc405…4affbacked TNC53c335.68$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.8816355.8%91 W · 72 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45fb…f1f6backed TNC79c319.54$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.543100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+195%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Betclic Apogee Esports45c314.67$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.627549.5%136 W · 139 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca5e…4a1cbacked Betclic Apogee Esports49c307.57$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1509443.6%41 W · 53 L-6.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9982…8b06backed Betclic Apogee Esports54c301.79$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.972138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-17.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4bb…22a9backed TNC49c295.56$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.9827647.1%130 W · 146 L-9.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe91…59c8backed TNC51c294.44$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.44580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+57.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x041b…d3ebbacked TNC55c280.78$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.6231451.6%162 W · 152 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed TNC55c268.09$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.222,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed TNC61c262.41$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.641,54733.9%524 W · 1,023 L-73.4wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe590…a5d4backed Betclic Apogee Esports51c259.85$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.09425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-43.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d62…5409backed TNC58c259.22$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.2248562.7%304 W · 181 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d7d…617fbacked TNC54c253.71$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.72366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick29cpaid+89.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc1c4…bbfbbacked Betclic Apogee Esports49c251$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.994957.1%28 W · 21 L+5.2wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+26.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x63c6…a5c9backed TNC40c250$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15023146.3%107 W · 124 L+12.8wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd5ab…738ebacked TNC53c250$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.55100%5 W · 0 L+3.2wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+225.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2056…2189backed Betclic Apogee Esports53c247.99$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.1820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cff…3984backed Betclic Apogee Esports53c243.85$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13020952.6%110 W · 99 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e48…f025backed TNC72c242.61$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.615072%36 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick74cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Betclic Apogee Esports41c241.17$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.474,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0cf…8bcbbacked Betclic Apogee Esports26c238.2$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.93540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed TNC60c235$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$942,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa35b…60e9backed Betclic Apogee Esports56c227.95$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.6555043.1%237 W · 313 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa73d…b089backed TNC60c225.96$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.874100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d4d…4f6bbacked TNC72c208.33$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.334571.1%32 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick75cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed Betclic Apogee Esports47c205.01$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.351,14643.5%499 W · 647 L-17.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6a0…2212backed Betclic Apogee Esports49c203.94$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.3534547.5%164 W · 181 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc386…386fbacked TNC54c200$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9225944.8%116 W · 143 L+12.2wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+30%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1769…94efbacked Betclic Apogee Esports38c189.98$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.9491648.9%448 W · 468 L+4.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed Betclic Apogee Esports45c187.63$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.751,62052.7%853 W · 767 L+57.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f28…d173backed Betclic Apogee Esports45c171$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.9518057.2%103 W · 77 L-8.9wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-6.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc59f…954ebacked Betclic Apogee Esports55c171$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9421653.2%115 W · 101 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x97f1…1972backed TNC56c170$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.18343.4%36 W · 47 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid+18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07f9…1513backed Betclic Apogee Esports54c168.51$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9144343.3%192 W · 251 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a6b…66b6backed Betclic Apogee Esports57c164$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.954450%22 W · 22 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+37.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e20…e3c8backed Betclic Apogee Esports54c161.11$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$877245.8%33 W · 39 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed TNC40c157.5$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.561,41133.7%475 W · 936 L+42.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Betclic Apogee Esports39c140$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.882,06150.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L-18.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9345…3869backed TNC49c139.99$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.2411254.5%61 W · 51 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x59dc…22bebacked Betclic Apogee Esports58c135.6$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8da6…107abacked TNC48c132.14$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.512948.8%63 W · 66 L-7.1wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf32f…4d05backed TNC61c122.54$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed Betclic Apogee Esports45c120$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541,04645%471 W · 575 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a70…0519backed Betclic Apogee Esports42c119.79$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5038835.6%138 W · 250 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-5.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Betclic Apogee Esports49c119.57$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581,31944.2%583 W · 736 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Betclic Apogee Esports34c119.32$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.132,10216.8%353 W · 1,749 L-286.5wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-47.2%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x47ca…e92bbacked TNC58c118.95$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.3314658.2%85 W · 61 L+5.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed TNC55c116$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.782,36246.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L-53.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc007…a0edbacked TNC46c111.81$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.820544.4%91 W · 114 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked TNC78c108.14$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.951,63043.2%704 W · 926 L-32.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7173…7a4cbacked TNC64c106.48$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.681850%9 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b09…5f9cbacked TNC64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.51060%6 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-16.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3109…ff47backed TNC60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4018450%92 W · 92 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda74…1ab0backed Betclic Apogee Esports51c98.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509948.5%48 W · 51 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3892…4093backed TNC49c97.98$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.5522650%113 W · 113 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x69e4…9bacbacked Betclic Apogee Esports58c95.41$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3419845.5%90 W · 108 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.