Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Group A
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5db045ce52333666b2c926a816ebe81306d3051e699a3065bc0e16c89c761e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nemiga Gamingof Nemiga Gaming, Hive
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,140
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,452
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,140 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8dae…125cbacked Hive | 25c | 500$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.8 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x257e…ca61backed Hive | 13c | 499.56$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.7 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…7b4fbacked Nemiga Gaming | 72c | 326.09$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.09 | 354 | 61.3%217 W · 137 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0f…9f36backed Nemiga Gaming | 72c | 220.51$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.51 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3783…171dbacked Nemiga Gaming | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +7.5wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…b347backed Nemiga Gaming | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 294 | 66%194 W · 100 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Hive | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Hive | 29c | 165.18$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 177 | 37.9%67 W · 110 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91aa…c94abacked Hive | 31c | 159.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Hive | 24c | 157$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 404 | 42.3%171 W · 233 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Hive | 11c | 153.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe800…6bfbbacked Hive | 15c | 125$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Hive | 19c | 120.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7017…9896backed Hive | 31c | 112.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a1d…8986backed Hive | 29c | 108$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4228…b838backed Hive | 13c | 102.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Nemiga Gaming | 71c | 76.94$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Hive | 15c | 74.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x920a…29e0backed Nemiga Gaming | 68c | 73.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976f…8a71backed Nemiga Gaming | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d9…c3cabacked Nemiga Gaming | 68c | 68.78$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 441 | 49.4%218 W · 223 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aca…ebaabacked Hive | 35c | 61.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Nemiga Gaming | 78c | 60.17$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 440 | 49.3%217 W · 223 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d5…8a03backed Nemiga Gaming | 74c | 57.12$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b3…4a99backed Hive | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4255…1792backed Hive | 29c | 44.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 137 | 31.4%43 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d33…28f8backed Hive | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Nemiga Gaming | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 457 | 50.8%232 W · 225 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Hive | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 192 | 49%94 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Nemiga Gaming | 73c | 35.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 665 | 45.6%303 W · 362 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Nemiga Gaming | 78c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 301 | 46.2%139 W · 162 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…fbb9backed Nemiga Gaming | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c8b…0644backed Nemiga Gaming | 71c | 27.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54ea…f74abacked Nemiga Gaming | 65c | 21.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Nemiga Gaming | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 145 | 47.6%69 W · 76 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b86…5552backed Nemiga Gaming | 74c | 16.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Group Athis page
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Hive - Game 1 WinnerNemiga Gaming won
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Hive - Game 2 WinnerNemiga Gaming won
- Game Handicap: Nemiga (-1.5) vs Hive (+1.5)Nemiga Gaming won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.