TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Flames vs. Lightning

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lightningof Flames, Lightning
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$41,114
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$41,570

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,114 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4219…850ebacked Lightning67c15,000$10,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,949.99250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb79…c2c6backed Flames33c7,764$2,562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,561.969459.6%56 W · 38 L+11.1wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+20.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4d34…b76fbacked Flames33c6,000$1,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9802744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54e1…51b4backed Flames34c3,200$1,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,088333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-49.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5461…d939backed Lightning66c3,200$2,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,088683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.34per pick50cpaid+76.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Flames33c3,000$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989.924546.1%113 W · 132 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfaae…8a95backed Lightning66c1,505$993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511.71163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8df…2521backed Flames34c1,500$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5102857.1%16 W · 12 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Lightning66c1,497$984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.5497651.6%504 W · 472 L-3.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Lightning66c1,381$911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.761,47548.3%712 W · 763 L+2.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40d…8ee3backed Lightning66c1,193$787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.66540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick62cpaid-40.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3dbb…470ebacked Flames34c1,193$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.66757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+19.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe210…791ebacked Flames33c1,122$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.59520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-40%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf42a…8470backed Flames29c1,024$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30021620.4%44 W · 172 L-11.0wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-34.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b41…e0d3backed Lightning67c891$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.0324457.4%140 W · 104 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34ee…3605backed Lightning66c707.88$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.68425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-62.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51a6…5c40backed Flames34c707.88$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.68742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe27b…858fbacked Flames34c704.99$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.6172444.6%323 W · 401 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b72…a3e4backed Flames34c700$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a4b…7c49backed Lightning66c700$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2381100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40e3…0787backed Flames2c642.63$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9332331.3%101 W · 222 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-28.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5314…910cbacked Lightning65c633.69$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.7922842.5%97 W · 131 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5d2…317bbacked Lightning66c569.92$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.7715663.5%99 W · 57 L+17.0wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+22.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Flames35c562.65$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.931,63650.4%825 W · 811 L-20.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x479c…bcbcbacked Flames34c500$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1703542.9%15 W · 20 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-17.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x12ce…a6abbacked Lightning66c500$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1703557.1%20 W · 15 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+15.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf10a…b2d1backed Lightning77c418.77$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.326940.6%28 W · 41 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Lightning67c350$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.514844.6%66 W · 82 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c0c…76fabacked Flames33c343.89$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.484548.9%22 W · 23 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Flames24c308.23$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.9684051.4%432 W · 408 L+19.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Lightning66c300.91$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.3192848.5%450 W · 478 L+17.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c98…2f96backed Flames34c294.12$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6379…5c9ebacked Flames34c294.12$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0157…685dbacked Flames34c264.71$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff7e…697fbacked Lightning67c263.12$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.831546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd547…7800backed Flames34c261.76$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c8a…7f5bbacked Flames35c260.03$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e87…a5b0backed Flames34c257.44$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.531968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.7wins+0.19per pick49cpaid+36.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x377e…fb4bbacked Flames35c252.86$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x850c…672ebacked Flames35c237.29$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.051258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ab2…51d0backed Flames34c203.97$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.35650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a1f…0227backed Lightning67c177.67$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.632462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+20.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x51f7…590bbacked Flames34c177.21$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.25333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+51.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Flames8c176$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.861895.3%10 W · 179 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d37…f343backed Flames35c164.74$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.011442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-26.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0623…35dbbacked Lightning67c149.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.253080%24 W · 6 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick69cpaid+17%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x39e6…84ffbacked Lightning67c147.57$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.71353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Lightning68c147.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.061,03955.2%574 W · 465 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1c4…bbfbbacked Flames36c141$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x664b…8509backed Flames33c130$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.97660.5%46 W · 30 L+9.6wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+26.2%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Lightning65c127.38$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.1366951%341 W · 328 L-14.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Flames29c117.97$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8691334.1%311 W · 602 L-27.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x291f…dc62backed Lightning67c113.99$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.621546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x855a…0985backed Flames34c112.06$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.11850%9 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ff9…4e59backed Flames33c105.09$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.682152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefdf…b489backed Lightning67c104.39$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.452356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9353…cdbebacked Lightning66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3450857.7%293 W · 215 L+0.4wins0.00per pick58cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3982…e44abacked Flames34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341040%4 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-42.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x895c…5f44backed Lightning67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b21…afbfbacked Lightning67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0425…d60bbacked Flames34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-29.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f79…8537backed Flames34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f3b…7064backed Lightning67c99.28$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.76475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+51.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x01f9…d2a7backed Lightning67c98.85$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.621540%6 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbdba…dd54backed Lightning67c92$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.361650%8 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa15a…58fcbacked Flames34c90.65$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.822236.4%8 W · 14 L-3.0wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-29.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x19f8…98f9backed Lightning67c89.55$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.5541757.3%239 W · 178 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0d9…45cabacked Lightning67c89.01$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d5e…dbefbacked Flames34c88.24$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf04f…a8c4backed Flames33c83.93$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1216437.2%61 W · 103 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5980…a3e6backed Lightning68c79.68$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.52846.4%13 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc41f…a6babacked Lightning67c75.54$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.933100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+62.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Lightning67c74.63$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.631,03755%570 W · 467 L-0.8wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c55…b4bcbacked Flames34c72.19$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+41%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Flames17c70$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.93,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82d7…099dbacked Lightning66c69$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8133…9b7ebacked Flames34c67.59$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed Lightning67c67.43$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.2557238.1%218 W · 354 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x235d…315dbacked Lightning68c64.54$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.65633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-32.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d3d…ce68backed Lightning67c63.67$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.011758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x76dd…451bbacked Lightning67c61.19$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.193100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3585…1595backed Flames33c59.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.798440.5%34 W · 50 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x582f…b966backed Flames37c54.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204544.4%20 W · 25 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b60…4007backed Lightning67c52.24$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.244663%29 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72cc…260abacked Flames34c52$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f51…91aabacked Lightning67c50.75$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.751154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe653…5a2ebacked Flames34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.7wins+0.24per pick48cpaid+50.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfe13…6c2fbacked Flames34c47$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d23…e530backed Flames34c44.12$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-44.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x425b…e6ebbacked Flames34c44.12$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-34.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x368c…b415backed Flames35c42.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154438.6%17 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcfe…3bc1backed Flames36c42.08$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.132133.3%7 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-26.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x89b5…6fecbacked Flames34c39$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac44…2468backed Flames33c38.52$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.711752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa337…9e54backed Lightning67c37.31$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3141954.4%228 W · 191 L-1.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0af8…9454backed Lightning67c37.31$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3115158.3%88 W · 63 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8e6…cbb5backed Lightning67c37.31$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.314271.4%30 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd273…b678backed Lightning67c37.31$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.311450%7 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa545…e692backed Flames35c36.23$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.68560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x345c…2135backed Flames34c35.29$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.