Europa Conference League · resolved market
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. SK Sigma Olomouc: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf60167b66271e1473684f161a5092bb68cc5f6b5921011d9f72f6b2b0256de98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,338
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,338 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 39c | 4,001$1,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,544.93 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 65c | 2,000$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.99 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 40c | 1,978$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.45 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…d4bfbacked Over | 66c | 1,500$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57a4…f0c0backed Over | 77c | 1,302$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.23 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 35c | 696.89$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.52 | 2,999 | 42.4%1,273 W · 1,726 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe2…5981backed Over | 75c | 369.6$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.18 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 26c | 365.21$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.56 | 1,026 | 47.4%486 W · 540 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 36c | 363.79$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.46 | 218 | 35.8%78 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce0…6599backed Under | 4c | 298.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 23c | 296.32$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.95 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x782e…b317backed Over | 70c | 285.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.71 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 25c | 284.66$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.39 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x138d…3bd4backed Under | 35c | 270.51$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.68 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Under | 21c | 270.33$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.11 | 67 | 22.4%15 W · 52 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Under | 7c | 264.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +8.1wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +108.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa72e…3db9backed Over | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 46c | 195.65$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.65 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…d343backed Over | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 74c | 134.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 147 | 67.3%99 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…00bfbacked Over | 52c | 133.78$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.78 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4a…0561backed Over | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b4…c2f1backed Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee26…9dcabacked Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1f…5ea8backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaca…49e6backed Over | 65c | 94.38$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.03 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Over | 47c | 78.09$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.39 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e1…b2eebacked Under | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…6eebbacked Over | 45c | 73.47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.47 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…54f0backed Over | 74c | 67.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d12…cc43backed Over | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 36c | 53.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 50c | 50.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 123 | 55.3%68 W · 55 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 63c | 49.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 52c | 49.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 387 | 53%205 W · 182 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Under | 50c | 43.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -39%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 26c | 42.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked Over | 44c | 38.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc460…0aa4backed Over | 47c | 36.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 73c | 35.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Over | 58c | 27.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Over | 44c | 23.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 13cpaid | +119.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2de6…e187backed Under | 53c | 20.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. SK Sigma Olomouc: O/U 1.5this page
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. SK Sigma Olomouc: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. SK Sigma Olomouc: O/U 2.5Under won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. SK Sigma Olomouc: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. SK Sigma Olomouc: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-1.5)1. FSV Mainz 05 won
- Spread: SK Sigma Olomouc (-2.5)1. FSV Mainz 05 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.