Europa Conference League · resolved market
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. SK Sigma Olomouc: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4ac8db4d190836e85c88397bf8f3065ff108b23b80f125df6b9d8eeb6da5bc3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,383
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,383 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 52c | 2,375$1,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,141.26 | 201 | 32.3%65 W · 136 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Under | 50c | 1,319$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.22 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 30c | 1,249$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.82 | 67 | 22.4%15 W · 52 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 49c | 1,022$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.14 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Under | 50c | 633.93$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.51 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 48c | 633.8$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.22 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fc…a7c1backed Over | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -59%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed Over | 50c | 444$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…30ccbacked Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 48c | 393$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.64 | 180 | 49.4%89 W · 91 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 56c | 353$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.32 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 48c | 347$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.56 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…d343backed Over | 48c | 258.33$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 50c | 200$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…d2f0backed Under | 50c | 199.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4244…03a6backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Over | 35c | 185.71$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 115 | 36.5%42 W · 73 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 39c | 179.49$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 66c | 147.54$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 68c | 137.68$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.41 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Over | 48c | 124.8$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 50c | 116.46$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.23 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47f9…4731backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.4wins | +0.34per pick | 56cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x88ed…8300backed Over | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Over | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 279 | 39.8%111 W · 168 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb49…1fbebacked Under | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 49c | 53.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 38c | 52.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…a2b4backed Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -30%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…42c1backed Over | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 62c | 45.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 96 | 38.5%37 W · 59 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3d…b56cbacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Over | 50c | 35.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Over | 48c | 26.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa695…fc7ebacked Over | 52c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb2…3db8backed Over | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +98.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.39per pick | 50cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbe…4d88backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -51%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. SK Sigma Olomouc: O/U 2.5this page
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. SK Sigma Olomouc: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. SK Sigma Olomouc: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. SK Sigma Olomouc: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. SK Sigma Olomouc: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-1.5)1. FSV Mainz 05 won
- Spread: SK Sigma Olomouc (-2.5)1. FSV Mainz 05 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.