Fifa International · resolved market
Japan vs. Sweden: Neither team to score first?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf60518ca9088fb900a904f0d4ef79e98b9ccadf2b0155c98e807aa920edcac22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,941
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,241
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,941 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 0c | 29,300$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 174 | 32.8%57 W · 117 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 7c | 4,475$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.92 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…2c01backed Yes | 30c | 1,693$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | +23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x625a…2dd5backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 21c | 1,186$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.09 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6077backed Yes | 35c | 500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 481 | 40.1%193 W · 288 L | -17.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40a7…ecb7backed No | 70c | 499.98$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.12 | 198 | 25.3%50 W · 148 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 68c | 492.34$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.11 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…7a58backed Yes | 7c | 271.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…b0a7backed Yes | 8c | 259.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 756 | 30.4%230 W · 526 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 74c | 221$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.57 | 326 | 39%127 W · 199 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e7…d258backed Yes | 19c | 213.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98b9…c9c8backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -65%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1,005 | 44.3%445 W · 560 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87cb…643abacked Yes | 7c | 184.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 209 | 42.6%89 W · 120 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 28c | 160.21$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.17 | 2,793 | 46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 136$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 11c | 96.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcac9…b4bbbacked Yes | 19c | 80.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…d56cbacked Yes | 19c | 70.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 825 | 37.1%306 W · 519 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aff…aad8backed Yes | 37c | 61.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7b…bd59backed Yes | 31c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 221 | 47.1%104 W · 117 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 344 | 38.4%132 W · 212 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed No | 72c | 46.62$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 1,601 | 47.8%765 W · 836 L | +51.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1985…51abbacked No | 74c | 29.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +19.7wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked No | 69c | 29.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 451 | 45%203 W · 248 L | +22.3wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 67c | 22.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 217 | 49.8%108 W · 109 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 72c | 15.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 2,453 | 34.7%850 W · 1,603 L | +84.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Japan vs. Sweden: Neither team to score first?this page
- Japan to score first vs. Sweden?Yes won
- Sweden to score first vs. Japan?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.