Fifa International · resolved market
Sweden to score first vs. Japan?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe428d9463b7b28fb4814fdecb48753ea5a91fadec832ebd72215a136dcfb4d27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,556
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,574
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,556 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4457…f3e2backed Yes | 31c | 900$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 142 | 31%44 W · 98 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 59c | 805.64$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.31 | 1,135 | 40.2%456 W · 679 L | +5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c30…1d10backed Yes | 31c | 778.19$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.84 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3a…64b7backed No | 64c | 599.98$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.99 | 129 | 47.3%61 W · 68 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 36c | 517.25$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.93 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5e…4e0cbacked Yes | 36c | 508.33$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 243 | 44.4%108 W · 135 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 504.94$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.33 | 656 | 51.7%339 W · 317 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40a7…ecb7backed No | 75c | 500$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.18 | 198 | 25.3%50 W · 148 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 60c | 434.77$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.15 | 648 | 50.6%328 W · 320 L | -13.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 64c | 375.65$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.23 | 121 | 50.4%61 W · 60 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 41c | 287.35$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.81 | 176 | 29%51 W · 125 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked No | 65c | 286.06$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.97 | 2,973 | 28%831 W · 2,142 L | -132.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5c…91fcbacked Yes | 37c | 245.95$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 21c | 234.63$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 2,793 | 46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 64c | 211.56$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.15 | 2,804 | 46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L | -27.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda7…4fa2backed Yes | 36c | 202.12$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…5b3cbacked Yes | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 69c | 141.96$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.68 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 140.9$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.56 | 460 | 47.2%217 W · 243 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 65c | 103.31$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.36 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 39c | 98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.37 | 3,286 | 49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed Yes | 36c | 90$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 253 | 52.6%133 W · 120 L | +12.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 72c | 85$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 2,524 | 42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 19c | 74.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 2,533 | 46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L | +12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6be6…9539backed Yes | 41c | 73.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 68c | 73.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 157 | 47.8%75 W · 82 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c08…e7b6backed Yes | 36c | 69.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 80 | 31.3%25 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf1…2960backed Yes | 40c | 62.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 165 | 31.5%52 W · 113 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 64c | 62.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 339 | 37.5%127 W · 212 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed No | 64c | 60.07$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 465 | 50.3%234 W · 231 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked No | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 245 | 41.2%101 W · 144 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf927…94b5backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Yes | 37c | 52.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 1,536 | 49.1%754 W · 782 L | +32.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98c1…3d1ebacked No | 64c | 51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 342 | 38.6%132 W · 210 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeae4…5c60backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked No | 63c | 49.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 2,231 | 49.2%1,098 W · 1,133 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…9e8dbacked No | 72c | 49.79$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 501 | 46.1%231 W · 270 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a28…eff6backed No | 60c | 49.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc374…cee1backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc43f…5e7ebacked Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2763…abe6backed Yes | 36c | 28.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 64c | 27.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 66c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 363 | 35.8%130 W · 233 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 76c | 22.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 217 | 49.8%108 W · 109 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sweden to score first vs. Japan?this page
- Japan to score first vs. Sweden?Yes won
- Japan vs. Sweden: Neither team to score first?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.