Mls · resolved market
Seattle Sounders FC vs. San Diego FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf623022dc35a8523c3e7f49331c5eba66cf834e6ac1dfeefb81e468522826188
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,613
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,327
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,613 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x479e…91c3backed Under | 72c | 1,518$1,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.98 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 37c | 1,058$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.77 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 60c | 375$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.1 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Over | 24c | 335.7$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.82 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1334…4ce4backed Under | 56c | 315.28$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +125.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Under | 50c | 300.26$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.26 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +5.7wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Under | 40c | 261.67$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…5d3abacked Over | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 73cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 37c | 218$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.82 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 33c | 190.76$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.16 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4658backed Over | 62c | 162.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 28c | 150.79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 73c | 131.14$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.03 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 42c | 128$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.04 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 70c | 123.02$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.41 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 35c | 92.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 51c | 78.84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf52…5702backed Under | 44c | 73.18$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +128.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64fd…f7aebacked Over | 76c | 70$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 37c | 68.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Under | 72c | 67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 94 | 37.2%35 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 79c | 55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 44c | 54.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3c…37e4backed Over | 23c | 52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Over | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -6.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 186 | 51.6%96 W · 90 L | +11.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 22c | 48.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 29c | 47.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Over | 63c | 47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 31c | 46.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 70c | 46.01$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Over | 39c | 44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 89 | 71.9%64 W · 25 L | +17.2wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 65c | 43.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d76…517cbacked Under | 40c | 36.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 35c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 222 | 69.4%154 W · 68 L | +31.4wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x16e5…6373backed Over | 39c | 31.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Under | 73c | 27.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | -16.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Under | 41c | 26.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…b42dbacked Under | 68c | 23.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +41%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Over | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b91…27dcbacked Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. San Diego FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. San Diego FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. San Diego FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. San Diego FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. San Diego FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: San Diego FC (-1.5)Seattle Sounders FC won
- Spread: Seattle Sounders FC (-1.5)San Diego FC won
- Spread: Seattle Sounders FC (-2.5)San Diego FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.