Mls · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Sounders FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcff0a2128cb0c19745f98c855342ee0dd1d04b77ff2749c889799c33e7479f42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego FCof Seattle Sounders FC, San Diego FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,022
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,497
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,022 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb22…6478backed Seattle Sounders FC | 40c | 8,707$3,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,482.87 | 156 | 47.4%74 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f9…87b0backed Seattle Sounders FC | 37c | 4,928$1,803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,802.81 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed San Diego FC | 70c | 2,589$1,823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.82 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed San Diego FC | 60c | 2,000$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Diego FC | 63c | 1,126$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.69 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked San Diego FC | 60c | 1,122$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.61 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed San Diego FC | 64c | 1,056$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.21 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -6.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Seattle Sounders FC | 17c | 1,023$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.63 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed San Diego FC | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked San Diego FC | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked San Diego FC | 62c | 980$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.4 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed San Diego FC | 60c | 978.7$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.48 | 195 | 60%117 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed San Diego FC | 60c | 864.98$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.99 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed San Diego FC | 60c | 800$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 172 | 58.1%100 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x374a…03edbacked San Diego FC | 60c | 600$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 122 | 63.1%77 W · 45 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed San Diego FC | 60c | 450.12$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.05 | 126 | 61.1%77 W · 49 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed San Diego FC | 62c | 300$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Seattle Sounders FC | 28c | 300$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed San Diego FC | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Seattle Sounders FC | 29c | 197.64$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed San Diego FC | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 169 | 60.9%103 W · 66 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed San Diego FC | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 142 | 57.7%82 W · 60 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed San Diego FC | 62c | 120$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 117 | 59%69 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked San Diego FC | 60c | 120$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 121 | 62%75 W · 46 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked San Diego FC | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 150 | 60%90 W · 60 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed San Diego FC | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 131 | 58.8%77 W · 54 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…d5a3backed San Diego FC | 63c | 98.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked San Diego FC | 66c | 95.68$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3146…d153backed San Diego FC | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed San Diego FC | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 144 | 59.7%86 W · 58 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked San Diego FC | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked San Diego FC | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 144 | 59.7%86 W · 58 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed San Diego FC | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 122 | 54.9%67 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Diego FC | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed San Diego FC | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 152 | 59.9%91 W · 61 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed San Diego FC | 63c | 59.6$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed San Diego FC | 60c | 58.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 88 | 68.2%60 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed San Diego FC | 64c | 58.45$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7242…ac6fbacked Seattle Sounders FC | 41c | 58.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked San Diego FC | 74c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Seattle Sounders FC | 41c | 51.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 43cpaid | -74%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed San Diego FC | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed San Diego FC | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked San Diego FC | 66c | 39.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d4…523cbacked San Diego FC | 62c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a37…4daebacked San Diego FC | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked San Diego FC | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 135 | 60.7%82 W · 53 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked San Diego FC | 66c | 23.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed San Diego FC | 66c | 21.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed San Diego FC | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 238 | 58%138 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8acc…cc29backed San Diego FC | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +11.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed San Diego FC | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbffb…a60ebacked San Diego FC | 78c | 19.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Sounders FC (-1.5)this page
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. San Diego FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. San Diego FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. San Diego FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. San Diego FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Seattle Sounders FC vs. San Diego FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: San Diego FC (-1.5)Seattle Sounders FC won
- Spread: Seattle Sounders FC (-2.5)San Diego FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.