Fifa International · resolved market
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Second half draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf63e8558aa4822043af19bc951dd66e300518aa7810236000cdaa06e49f87526
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,159
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,834
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,159 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 27c | 4,406$1,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,173.26 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 78c | 3,375$2,647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.27 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea3…d227backed No | 67c | 978.84$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.02 | 209 | 55.5%116 W · 93 L | +12.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9740…6babbacked Yes | 33c | 909.09$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 80c | 909$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.48 | 2,533 | 46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L | +12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 79c | 895.4$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.77 | 648 | 50.6%328 W · 320 L | -13.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1530…79a8backed Yes | 13c | 812.47$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.07 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…584fbacked Yes | 31c | 751.52$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +37%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 9c | 557.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1b…9876backed Yes | 25c | 438.54$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.1 | 327 | 33%108 W · 219 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 37c | 407.28$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.2 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4d…8b35backed No | 66c | 365$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.1 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 75c | 261.18$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.36 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb115…4e6fbacked Yes | 20c | 238$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 127 | 44.1%56 W · 71 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6591…9cd0backed No | 66c | 160$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a4…895bbacked Yes | 19c | 157.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…428cbacked Yes | 15c | 134.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 373 | 20.9%78 W · 295 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 34c | 128.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.19 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3561…f1b7backed Yes | 35c | 124.84$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.69 | 950 | 37.5%356 W · 594 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15c8…23fdbacked Yes | 20c | 120$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Yes | 34c | 116.08$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 1,702 | 36.7%625 W · 1,077 L | -31.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd00…d1afbacked Yes | 12c | 105.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 455 | 28.4%129 W · 326 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5238…ba99backed Yes | 20c | 87.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 153 | 35.3%54 W · 99 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9516…0bcbbacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 562 | 40.6%228 W · 334 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2,231 | 49.2%1,098 W · 1,133 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62bc…5053backed Yes | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 201 | 49.3%99 W · 102 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 66c | 47.84$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 117 | 64.1%75 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b1…eb43backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…cb7ebacked Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 79c | 41.45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 2,804 | 46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L | -27.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa68d…eab5backed No | 70c | 36.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdad7…005abacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 285 | 54.4%155 W · 130 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…cb96backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 920 | 38.5%354 W · 566 L | -21.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 73c | 18.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 217 | 49.8%108 W · 109 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Netherlands vs. Sweden: Second half draw?this page
- Netherlands to win the second half?Yes won
- Sweden to win the second half?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.