Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf66ce4c4922915b60bc51268965ffd17142b09bf0d3aa3b86cb486f5753250e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,541
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,250
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,541 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 551.9$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.69 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 27c | 425.78$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.01 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 73c | 412.56$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.17 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e97…96cebacked Yes | 44c | 289.98$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.26 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 61c | 235.28$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.24 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 43c | 187.13$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 186.34$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.77 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 182.73$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.74 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 33c | 172.5$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.32 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf651…86b1backed No | 6c | 169.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 64c | 167.07$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 163.64$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.69 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 57c | 154.33$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.97 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 37c | 140.78$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.38 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 64c | 118$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.46 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 42c | 114$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.55 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 57c | 110.57$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.55 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 23c | 104$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 34c | 103.41$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.25 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 33c | 101.28$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.56 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 100.73$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.49 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 35c | 93.89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.87 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 65c | 90$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82df…0f66backed Yes | 67c | 88$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.13 | 69 | 89.9%62 W · 7 L | +25.3wins | +0.37per pick | 53cpaid | +111%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 43c | 83.05$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.34 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 35c | 72.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 60c | 71$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 67.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 41c | 65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 65c | 61.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 64c | 60.19$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 64c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 43c | 59.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 40c | 57.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1a…2987backed No | 59c | 57.54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c1…0020backed Yes | 57c | 52.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 41c | 48.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 44.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 33c | 42.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 66c | 42.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 72c | 41.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8d…f707backed No | 50c | 37.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 64c | 35.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 70c | 35.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 30c | 35.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 56c | 34.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 65c | 33.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 64c | 33.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 64c | 29.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea4…4990backed No | 61c | 29.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -7.5wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 69c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 70c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 66c | 25.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…9a51backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -10.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 69c | 24.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 68c | 22.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…91aabacked No | 67c | 22.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 65c | 22.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 66c | 21.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 70c | 21.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 61c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c29…f3bbbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83cb…60d4backed No | 62c | 18.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 72c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 94-95°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 96-97°F on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.