Fifa International · resolved market
Curaçao leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6788385ebc335ab7747f73bc3160bf0a685821f6abd0a932edbc8566b9fcfdf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $132,837
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $135,603
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,837 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 3c | 18,889$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.87 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14be…3296backed Yes | 3c | 5,627$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed Yes | 3c | 4,843$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.58 | 1,985 | 32.5%645 W · 1,340 L | -47.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 3c | 3,092$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.49 | 2,439 | 29%707 W · 1,732 L | -65.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…2fc9backed Yes | 2c | 2,797$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 274 | 66.4%182 W · 92 L | +28.8wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43e3…43f7backed Yes | 4c | 2,590$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 232 | 30.2%70 W · 162 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 2c | 2,409$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.41 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 3c | 2,244$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.86 | 1,686 | 20.6%347 W · 1,339 L | -28.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…d9edbacked Yes | 4c | 2,000$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ddb2backed Yes | 3c | 1,854$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6888…a61cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,525$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 144 | 30.6%44 W · 100 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,050$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 609 | 8.4%51 W · 558 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5006…48cabacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 182 | 48.9%89 W · 93 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6739…feb9backed Yes | 4c | 980$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 5cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a44…f9e9backed Yes | 4c | 979.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 5cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 2c | 963.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3a…283bbacked Yes | 3c | 883$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 2c | 835.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 778 | 45%350 W · 428 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed Yes | 2c | 818.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +157.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe185…de06backed Yes | 3c | 755.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…90c7backed Yes | 4c | 754.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Yes | 2c | 700.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 215 | 42.8%92 W · 123 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…d204backed Yes | 3c | 648.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 97 | 38.1%37 W · 60 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b19…c1f1backed Yes | 4c | 574.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 4c | 527.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 549 | 17.9%98 W · 451 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…1942backed Yes | 3c | 518.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 165 | 9.7%16 W · 149 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f64…e6d1backed Yes | 3c | 510$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5e…502ebacked Yes | 2c | 499.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 3c | 486.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd331…733cbacked Yes | 4c | 477$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 630 | 35.7%225 W · 405 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 3c | 442$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 2,171 | 38.2%829 W · 1,342 L | -36.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdd…8271backed Yes | 4c | 385.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Yes | 3c | 379.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb8…6b51backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 103 | 14.6%15 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…0dfcbacked Yes | 4c | 298$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 585 | 30.9%181 W · 404 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa334…55fabacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e16…52d2backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Curaçao leading at halftime?this page
- Germany leading at halftime?Yes won
- Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.