Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on May 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf696337fd7802a943b41e77832ee77fb95f82f7e1268ff2d7c38182c02f3119d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,135
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,787
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,135 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 64c | 722.27$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.99 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 19c | 295.31$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.08 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 52c | 281.99$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.78 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 58c | 267.91$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.54 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 71c | 265.12$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.91 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 73c | 185.44$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.33 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x256e…ba7ebacked Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 21c | 149.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 32c | 104.15$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.47 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.24 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 30c | 98.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 80c | 93.38$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 80.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…5c82backed No | 66c | 79.07$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 13c | 77.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2b…c9fabacked Yes | 31c | 74.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 18c | 71.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 70c | 68.37$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 62$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 44c | 58.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 68c | 51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e1…77debacked Yes | 39c | 43.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f9…e847backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 33c | 39.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 57c | 36.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x223b…6f2abacked Yes | 55c | 36.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 73c | 35.86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 57c | 35.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 30c | 35.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 58c | 34.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 50c | 31.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 45c | 29.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 52c | 28.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed Yes | 64c | 28.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7c…de22backed Yes | 46c | 23.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 22.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…3f6dbacked No | 53c | 22.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13b2…1decbacked No | 55c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 70c | 20.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 54c | 20.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…4bc5backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 55c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x789a…c040backed No | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on May 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C or below on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C or higher on May 17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.