Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C or higher on May 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34fbe33c353683d72fa767101a781c0ec87e89ede8ed453b74bdf991e31625e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,192
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,044
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,192 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfa9e…2264backed No | 0c | 3,899$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked No | 48c | 1,126$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.22 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 19c | 725.95$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.2 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 77c | 414.97$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.2 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 11c | 321.23$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.45 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 34c | 299.98$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 75c | 262.42$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.21 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa284…fbbabacked No | 20c | 247.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 77c | 212.2$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.88 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 9c | 184.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.03 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe399…b921backed No | 51c | 169.43$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.36 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa457…edc8backed No | 46c | 142.77$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 30c | 130.02$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 80c | 125.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked No | 20c | 122.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 103.54$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.91 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed Yes | 60c | 99.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 55c | 98.34$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.9 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 53c | 94.98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.29 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc187…99f9backed Yes | 12c | 91.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.38 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 74c | 84.73$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb7…841cbacked Yes | 65c | 76.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 21c | 76.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 21c | 70.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 79c | 67.52$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 79c | 62.08$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.79 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed Yes | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 51c | 58.32$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e7…c727backed No | 26c | 54.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 35c | 51.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.55 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 39c | 47.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 29c | 46.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed Yes | 26c | 45.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.51 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd92f…3546backed Yes | 67c | 44.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e1…77debacked Yes | 54c | 42.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed Yes | 59c | 42.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3545…b7e0backed No | 47c | 40.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 64c | 39.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 76c | 37.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 80c | 35.26$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 55c | 34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 51c | 30.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf7…b963backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked Yes | 80c | 28.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked Yes | 71c | 26.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…a41bbacked No | 56c | 25.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 104 | 10.6%11 W · 93 L | -42.2wins | -0.41per pick | 51cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 14-0.33 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 47c | 24.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 51c | 23.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 67c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 78c | 19.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 77c | 18.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 61c | 17.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae37…90f2backed No | 59c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 79c | 16.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 79c | 14.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf43…66f5backed Yes | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C or higher on May 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C or below on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on May 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.