Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf69c41418b2a3f370f052c8b989820581afd923d3dd98d6f1c976e1d97ac65d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,509
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,198
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,509 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x36da…907bbacked No | 70c | 442$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.6 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 50c | 225.41$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.22 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 218.47$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.19 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 34c | 189.18$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3204…b1dbbacked Yes | 41c | 163.94$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.25 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…0af1backed Yes | 30c | 156.25$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.88 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 66c | 128.96$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.85 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 43c | 128.22$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 43c | 122.38$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.55 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ed…e634backed Yes | 37c | 111.77$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 26c | 109.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3087…5250backed Yes | 21c | 104.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 95.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 28c | 90.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 31c | 89.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 74c | 77.08$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 69c | 76.44$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 20c | 76.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 70c | 74.59$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 52c | 74$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 71.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…727bbacked Yes | 30c | 68.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 60c | 68.13$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 67c | 61.19$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 59.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…8f81backed Yes | 42c | 59.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 59c | 58.02$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b2…954fbacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No | 65c | 53.57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 30c | 53.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 28c | 53.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 30c | 53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 72c | 51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 65c | 49.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 30c | 49.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc53a…625fbacked No | 61c | 46.88$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37e8…64e4backed No | 66c | 45.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 63c | 45.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 29c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 72c | 44.72$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef5e…b385backed No | 51c | 43.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 59c | 41.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 73c | 39.14$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 49c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2695…60f8backed No | 64c | 37.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbf…002fbacked No | 68c | 36.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | +19.9wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +424.1%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 40c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 31.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 71c | 31.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb29…0171backed Yes | 33c | 30.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 65c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 51c | 24.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 68c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 54c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 59c | 22.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 69c | 19.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on May 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.