Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce46d557cafaa8f0ae0c2a65b18bad0c06289472f44c7ef201a7f821b2a0799f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,755
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,755 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 364.75$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.95 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 40c | 324.2$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.2 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 33c | 307.8$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.51 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3087…5250backed No | 39c | 271.11$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.76 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 73c | 267.39$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.48 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 48c | 259.09$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.63 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 62c | 241.06$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.06 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 32c | 235.24$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.24 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ead…f333backed Yes | 28c | 204.16$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.35 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…907bbacked No | 80c | 197.59$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.92 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 79c | 188.86$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.66 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf913…9e87backed No | 67c | 163$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.96 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 25c | 150.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 139.72$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.7 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 34c | 134.54$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 43c | 129.09$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.09 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 128$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 74c | 126.35$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.01 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 34c | 122.33$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.24 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 45c | 114.98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.59 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 61c | 104.38$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 34c | 104.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 62c | 95.56$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.9 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25e9…adbcbacked No | 28c | 93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 63c | 77.54$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 71c | 74.59$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.65 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 69c | 70.1$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 65c | 70.08$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 19c | 66.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.46 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 33c | 66.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.97 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 23c | 65.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.95 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…0304backed Yes | 37c | 65.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.67 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 71c | 64.24$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.91 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 63c | 62.82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…b99fbacked Yes | 80c | 61.25$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 21c | 60.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…3d55backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 59.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 31c | 59.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.84 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f33…1ab8backed Yes | 32c | 59.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.41 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +4.6wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 25c | 58.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 20c | 55.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.48 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 38c | 52.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 69c | 51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed Yes | 23c | 50.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 60c | 49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 73c | 48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 72c | 44.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked Yes | 25c | 42.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.26 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae6e…b4bebacked Yes | 72c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 69c | 40.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked No | 38c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e8…64e4backed No | 77c | 38.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 57c | 38.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 27c | 38.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 33c | 37.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes | 62c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 73c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b98…c0cebacked Yes | 30c | 34.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 68c | 32.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…aef2backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 102 | 28.4%29 W · 73 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ed…e634backed Yes | 36c | 30.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb29…0171backed Yes | 35c | 30.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf625…ae8abacked Yes | 66c | 27.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked No | 70c | 26.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa65…18a8backed No | 69c | 25.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 80 | 63.8%51 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 64c | 24.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 67c | 24.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 70c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11a9…4182backed No | 68c | 23.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 58c | 22.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbf…002fbacked No | 71c | 22.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | +19.9wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +424.1%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 74c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 73c | 19.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 74c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 74c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d6…aa50backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 67cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 77c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 75c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on May 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.