Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6d2eae78bec586e44e8f8e61b641802149802b43e3a1f3b05bf97e28d9e7275
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,406
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,540
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,406 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 5c | 654.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 18c | 277.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 31c | 266$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.16 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 23c | 209.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 34c | 201.5$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.16 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 57c | 200.08$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.37 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 43c | 169.34$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.39 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 76c | 131$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x635a…cccbbacked Yes | 44c | 119.3$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.83 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 22c | 93.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 29c | 93.05$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 39c | 90.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.41 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 44c | 75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 37c | 71.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 75c | 67.83$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 77c | 65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…17c0backed Yes | 36c | 64.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 58c | 64$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 70c | 63.09$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 58.28$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 41c | 57.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 68c | 51.27$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd36b…5942backed No | 67c | 49.14$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe863…1be9backed Yes | 37c | 47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 37c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 42c | 43.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac0…0f1cbacked Yes | 35c | 42.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 53c | 40.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -8.6wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 66c | 39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 77c | 38.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…8969backed Yes | 35c | 32.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaff…d272backed Yes | 39c | 30.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 77c | 29.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 80c | 28.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 72c | 27.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc6…5e06backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x796a…e815backed Yes | 46c | 24.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 19.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 64c | 16.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.