Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6ea8c118a9f6085f6604aefd35b6cc3bca793696880cce32a416d82a4a259a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,250
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,481
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,250 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 36c | 1,576$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe826…adb7backed Yes | 12c | 1,043$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.32 | 120 | 32.5%39 W · 81 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 63c | 478.61$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.9 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 64c | 450$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 64c | 300$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb8…a530backed Yes | 40c | 281.65$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.52 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 196.81$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.21 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 39c | 139.24$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.95 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 38c | 131.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 124.84$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 72c | 112.51$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 28c | 110.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 108.7$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 38c | 73.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 19c | 69.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.95 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a5…34d1backed No | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 41c | 58.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed Yes | 44c | 57.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 34c | 54.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…4a6dbacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…11f4backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 57c | 45.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3c…c6d8backed No | 66c | 45.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 34c | 38.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 64c | 35.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 49c | 33.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 138 | 62.3%86 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 40c | 33.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 63c | 26.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…57c3backed Yes | 42c | 26.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -16.9wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 20.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 61c | 19.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 59c | 19.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 19.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 62c | 18.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fc…40bdbacked No | 74c | 14.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C or below on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.