College Football · resolved market
Alabama vs. Indiana: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf752ad495e4c936336bd5dd89e9c186510cc07cc5fb00febc76eb43809b9b852
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Indianaof Alabama, Indiana
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,535
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,770
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,535 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f1a…6dc0backed Alabama | 34c | 1,659$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.93 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Indiana | 66c | 1,312$866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.07 | 173 | 61.3%106 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Indiana | 66c | 795$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.3 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd277…73febacked Indiana | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…cd5dbacked Alabama | 33c | 239.28$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.57 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -7.4wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Indiana | 67c | 212.12$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf746…320fbacked Alabama | 33c | 181.82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…4f43backed Alabama | 34c | 176.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -4.5wins | -0.34per pick | 50cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7fdb…f763backed Alabama | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7eb…445ebacked Alabama | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73eb…26fcbacked Indiana | 67c | 139.28$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24d8…e8a8backed Alabama | 23c | 130$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 48cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x86d5…d7a8backed Indiana | 77c | 125$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +49%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…5a1cbacked Alabama | 34c | 116$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +110.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…693cbacked Alabama | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Alabama | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -4.5wins | -0.30per pick | 43cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Alabama vs. Indiana: 1H Moneylinethis page
- Alabama vs. IndianaIndiana won
- Alabama vs. Indiana: O/U 46.5Under won
- Alabama vs. Indiana: O/U 47.5Under won
- O/U 48.5Under won
- Spread: Indiana (-6.5)Indiana won
- Spread: Indiana (-7.5)Indiana won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.