Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf75d995314afcc992edfcd09ed0f23b398929f7482505c8c4efb34dea7bb3f3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,635
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,291
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,635 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 63c | 278.33$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.42 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 18c | 269.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.71 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 241.68$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.16 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd564…58d0backed Yes | 37c | 210.1$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.75 | 180 | 30.6%55 W · 125 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 37c | 189.33$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.66 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4c…ebeabacked No | 33c | 140.18$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 11c | 136.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 136.35$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 31c | 101.29$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.57 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc7…b45abacked Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf25…4f10backed Yes | 39c | 99.28$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.28 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d8…88b4backed Yes | 41c | 92.29$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.66 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 51c | 87.09$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 86.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.23 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 22c | 82.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 73.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.16 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 42c | 69.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 77c | 66.17$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 63c | 62.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…1f89backed Yes | 65c | 62.39$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 38c | 59.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 63c | 55.41$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 34c | 54.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed Yes | 68c | 51.44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 32c | 49.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 70c | 48.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…c0cbbacked Yes | 64c | 43.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b8…4493backed No | 24c | 43.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 38c | 43.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x556d…c115backed Yes | 72c | 43.16$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…17fbbacked Yes | 36c | 41.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 41.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec1…fbccbacked Yes | 52c | 39.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 30c | 39.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff6…8ac5backed No | 62c | 39.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 66c | 38.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 63c | 37.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 36.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.81 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x643d…f7ddbacked Yes | 29c | 36.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 55c | 34.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d76…89c6backed Yes | 39c | 31.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked No | 66c | 28.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x198a…2080backed Yes | 40c | 27.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd8…4ed3backed Yes | 76c | 25.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb87…9c52backed No | 67c | 21.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 72c | 20.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed No | 74c | 20.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…d923backed No | 74c | 20.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | -12.7wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed No | 75c | 19.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 62c | 19.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b0…d73cbacked Yes | 70c | 15.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde3c…1c50backed No | 68c | 14.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on April 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.