Champions League · resolved market
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf776831bbf5433b763cb177d541feefdb1a4a28f162be5cb7e58dd7314a1f482
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,560
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,825
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,560 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 62c | 2,547$1,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,580.16 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 39c | 1,505$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.27 | 375 | 44%165 W · 210 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 34c | 1,015$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.69 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Under | 62c | 999.96$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.97 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 62c | 887.1$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 220 | 54.1%119 W · 101 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1901…21c8backed Under | 76c | 526.32$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Under | 62c | 484.98$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.69 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7147…9a01backed Over | 26c | 451.42$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 62c | 444$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.28 | 189 | 50.3%95 W · 94 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 60c | 439$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.4 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda70…828bbacked Over | 38c | 421.05$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.05 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 39c | 332$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.28 | 380 | 43.9%167 W · 213 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 66c | 330.9$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.9 | 460 | 48.5%223 W · 237 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 39c | 307.69$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.69 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 38c | 295$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.9 | 434 | 27.4%119 W · 315 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 61c | 272.52$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.14 | 582 | 48.8%284 W · 298 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 38c | 201.95$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.54 | 397 | 46.9%186 W · 211 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23ed…aebcbacked Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 38c | 172.78$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.12 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Under | 63c | 157$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.91 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Over | 40c | 150$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d4…08d0backed Under | 65c | 149.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.49 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…5b8bbacked Under | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +5.0wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +32%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…fd61backed Over | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Under | 62c | 127$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.26 | 152 | 36.8%56 W · 96 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7826…20b1backed Over | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…6d41backed Over | 37c | 90$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b3…2341backed Over | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +25%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12f7…ff1fbacked Over | 40c | 71.06$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.95 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Over | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x521c…64d2backed Over | 37c | 67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Over | 38c | 56.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 61c | 56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 338 | 51.5%174 W · 164 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Under | 73c | 55.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.19 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 38c | 53.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 382 | 53.9%206 W · 176 L | +21.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…82d7backed Under | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 42c | 51.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 383 | 43.1%165 W · 218 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85a4…7412backed Over | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb063…c9d1backed Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…f244backed Under | 62c | 41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d66…0e16backed Over | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 39c | 38.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Under | 63c | 38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -49%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed Under | 69c | 36.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a7…261bbacked Over | 39c | 33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +117.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Under | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 104 | 65.4%68 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5e…4167backed Over | 31c | 32.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bd…d82dbacked Over | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5aa…1ebabacked Over | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Over | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Over | 38c | 27.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…cc70backed Under | 70c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7716…f8dcbacked Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa64c…34f2backed Under | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)Newcastle United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.