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Champions League · resolved market

Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$33,137
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$39,609

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,137 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Champions League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4133…5e70backed Under40c5,402$2,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,181.1658248.8%284 W · 298 L+2.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Under38c3,000$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1409348.4%45 W · 48 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7104…afefbacked Over62c3,000$1,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1401258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef92…9df5backed Over62c2,288$1,416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$872.11955.6%5 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid+8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Under38c1,542$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.793951.3%20 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Under38c1,500$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.9924327.2%66 W · 177 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Over58c1,134$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.277166.2%47 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over62c1,096$678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.5338043.9%167 W · 213 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5159…d7aebacked Under39c999.95$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.9812354.5%67 W · 56 L+8.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+21.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under24c998.33$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.391,59639.8%636 W · 960 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-16.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Over62c874.13$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.1714732.7%48 W · 99 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ea5…2af9backed Over60c866.91$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.914969.4%34 W · 15 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+15.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under45c866.16$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.222,10143.6%917 W · 1,184 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Over58c515.51$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.5115252%79 W · 73 L-11.9wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-11.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under38c500$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1902744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed Under39c443.96$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.1519549.7%97 W · 98 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+28.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e87…8befbacked Over61c409.84$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.846170.5%43 W · 18 L+5.1wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+18.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Over60c330.6$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.66248.4%30 W · 32 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x931f…d15dbacked Over61c327.87$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.875567.3%37 W · 18 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+14.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked Over62c300$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1143748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Under38c299.99$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11419344%85 W · 108 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under39c298.36$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.6639746.9%186 W · 211 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fc9…fa88backed Under29c279.7$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.34746.8%22 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6102…7661backed Under41c236.8$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.091369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick57cpaid+19.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4523…0be0backed Over60c200$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$805345.3%24 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Over62c200$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7620667.5%139 W · 67 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0e6…84a8backed Over53c200$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$946246.8%29 W · 33 L-5.1wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-13.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1488…0672backed Under40c185$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0a5…4024backed Over61c183.75$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over72c175.56$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.938343.1%165 W · 218 L-0.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3334…a65dbacked Over58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.412536%9 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa35f…b58fbacked Over58c170.68$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.699841.8%41 W · 57 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x64c6…244cbacked Over58c166.03$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.731770.6%12 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xab9b…d007backed Over61c163.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.93650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Over62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.296959.4%41 W · 28 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfab8…c3b0backed Over62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.29862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47d3…4255backed Over62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.29250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb29…ea29backed Under31c149.15$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.824744.7%21 W · 26 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x908e…2291backed Under40c125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+17.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6fa…51e5backed Over71c118.25$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.8512450.8%63 W · 61 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7068…c63bbacked Over60c116$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.43100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0cb6…b350backed Over61c82.33$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.33666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x061e…81e0backed Over61c81.97$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.972100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+84%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1382…7820backed Over62c81.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.213943.6%17 W · 22 L-4.1wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-20.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0bd4…49b7backed Over62c80.65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.653246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa554…e53dbacked Over60c74$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10ff…5088backed Under39c69.98$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.297140.8%29 W · 42 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick36cpaid-11.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa40d…f4d0backed Over62c69.58$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.661040%4 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Under44c69.42$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8437544%165 W · 210 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52bd…1a8abacked Over61c66$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.743268.8%22 W · 10 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f56…f93cbacked Over62c64.52$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.521241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ac3…2ab9backed Under43c60$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.82646.2%12 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+29.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa354…b85fbacked Over67c59.7$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.72748.1%13 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c4f…73a6backed Over60c58$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.2250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf8c…4bc2backed Over61c57.38$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.381952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd207…c366backed Over61c57.38$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.381080%8 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+27.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc049…48abbacked Over54c55.56$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.563938.5%15 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37bb…c71fbacked Under40c55$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-41.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe398…ee2ebacked Over74c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134065%26 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick69cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x884d…1da6backed Over70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153351.5%17 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3880…ab7dbacked Over71c49.02$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0210256.9%58 W · 44 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a9f…c2a6backed Over61c40.98$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.98862.5%5 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick63cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a29…16c5backed Over61c40.98$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.986950.7%35 W · 34 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32f2…7830backed Over61c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.63560%21 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f83…a491backed Over57c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.26240.3%25 W · 37 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc07d…5bd8backed Under35c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142050%10 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over53c37.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7420656.8%117 W · 89 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over58c37$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4222356.1%125 W · 98 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc39b…5754backed Over60c37$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under42c36.35$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4533851.5%174 W · 164 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Under42c36.04$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2110744.9%48 W · 59 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6562…4e48backed Over70c35.46$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.4610162.4%63 W · 38 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd466…599bbacked Over57c35.35$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.35977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick57cpaid+35.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1436…e23dbacked Under39c34$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.26728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick49cpaid-49%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d66…0e16backed Over60c33.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.332646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd28e…a78fbacked Over60c33.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.333828.9%11 W · 27 L-10.8wins-0.28per pick57cpaid-51.3%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x1e08…19cabacked Over61c33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.874969.4%34 W · 15 L+5.0wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0da9…9d56backed Over61c32.79$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.792060%12 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+28.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xceda…e67bbacked Over61c32.79$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.791963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+29.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbcca…da80backed Over61c32.79$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac27…18e7backed Over58c31.59$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.274266.7%28 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4ed…b35abacked Over70c28.57$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.57837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-41.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over59c27$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0710947.7%52 W · 57 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+36.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c4e…3725backed Over61c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.75560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x855b…8dd0backed Over62c24.19$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.192466.7%16 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x170c…7fe3backed Over61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.87152.1%37 W · 34 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1c1…090dbacked Over60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7988…cefebacked Over61c19.67$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.673100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+60%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x423d…c621backed Over56c19.64$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.642958.6%17 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7712…0c28backed Over60c19.04$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.621145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-23.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11f0…eb14backed Over59c18.03$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.41475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+16.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.