MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf780a19a2c4368e3f15d3274771a390ecb5019d6173f4602f4f8812a7d77d093
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,948
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,665
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,948 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 53c | 1,426$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.95 | 8,251 | 46.3%3,820 W · 4,431 L | +41.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Over | 44c | 1,350$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.62 | 323 | 66.3%214 W · 109 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 33c | 1,089$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.05 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 48c | 719.98$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.59 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x115e…5019backed Over | 69c | 615$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.5 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Over | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 48c | 466.34$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.85 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 52c | 446.44$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.29 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 73c | 410.55$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.56 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 61c | 291.54$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.39 | 8,654 | 52.6%4,550 W · 4,104 L | +506.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 68c | 239$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.61 | 5,172 | 54.6%2,824 W · 2,348 L | +227.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 53c | 161.77$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.74 | 11,606 | 52.8%6,131 W · 5,475 L | +210.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 33c | 150.72$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 11,054 | 51.5%5,694 W · 5,360 L | +137.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 30c | 102.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 6,309 | 48.2%3,044 W · 3,265 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked Under | 49c | 101.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Over | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Under | 40c | 98.65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.46 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31c5…270abacked Under | 40c | 96.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 51c | 80.58$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 8,451 | 47.9%4,048 W · 4,403 L | +81.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Under | 48c | 78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 61c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 6,128 | 55.4%3,394 W · 2,734 L | +347.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 34c | 60.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 1,003 | 24.7%248 W · 755 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 30c | 54.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 48c | 49.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Under | 39c | 34.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 487 | 43.3%211 W · 276 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 64c | 25.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 2,593 | 61.5%1,595 W · 998 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x651c…1084backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3006…2c59backed Over | 47c | 22.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 49cpaid | +106.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x499c…2f8ebacked Over | 68c | 21.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 77 | 66.2%51 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 52c | 20.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 705 | 55%388 W · 317 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 53c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…3107backed Over | 71c | 16.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 125 | 72%90 W · 35 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5this page
- Athletics vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5Under won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 11.5Under won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Over won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Over won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. San Diego PadresYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.