MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28a93ce7f960b03c597ff738b7c82265e172d5003c81d9c61fe08c5c49b8ebde
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,654
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,791
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,654 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3234…8b1abacked Under | 49c | 2,349$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,194.02 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 47c | 1,252$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.45 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 51c | 1,092$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.6 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 1,004$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.26 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 51c | 685.15$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.34 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 62c | 536.4$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.54 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 32c | 176.49$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.73 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79f7…ef5bbacked Under | 47c | 124.63$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.38 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Over | 40c | 124.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 339 | 34.5%117 W · 222 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 51c | 101.32$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.32 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 51c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 51c | 53.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 46c | 47.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 50c | 45.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 52c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 54c | 43.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x651c…1084backed Over | 50c | 40.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 52c | 35.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed Over | 50c | 35.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Under | 64c | 34.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 51c | 29.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 51c | 26.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 72c | 25.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 64c | 21.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5569…c927backed Under | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 128 | 58.6%75 W · 53 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5this page
- Athletics vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 11.5Under won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Over won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Over won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. San Diego PadresYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.