MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40cbf85ac9a4810c45397a9943133ef4dc9e606fe502585f1b8057e9a58d3ad8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof San Diego Padres, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,063
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,175
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,063 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Athletics | 67c | 4,573$3,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,050.89 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Diego Padres | 33c | 4,487$1,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,999.76 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Diego Padres | 32c | 1,599$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,084.06 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed San Diego Padres | 35c | 857.9$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.64 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Athletics | 65c | 739.24$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.69 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Athletics | 67c | 682.27$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.26 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Athletics | 63c | 600$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed San Diego Padres | 37c | 455.33$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.86 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Athletics | 68c | 439.09$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Athletics | 63c | 340$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.2 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed San Diego Padres | 33c | 312.73$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.53 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked San Diego Padres | 35c | 288.82$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.74 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Athletics | 69c | 236.42$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.69 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Athletics | 69c | 183.99$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.5 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked San Diego Padres | 34c | 180$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.8 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked San Diego Padres | 22c | 172$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.16 | 999 | 24.6%246 W · 753 L | -70.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Athletics | 68c | 145.66$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.05 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Athletics | 76c | 144.45$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.96 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed San Diego Padres | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Athletics | 55c | 131.55$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.68 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed San Diego Padres | 58c | 110$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.45 | 475 | 89.1%423 W · 52 L | +84.9wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +25%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked San Diego Padres | 33c | 88.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.12 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Athletics | 71c | 87$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.9 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Athletics | 71c | 66.71$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.35 | 1,040 | 51.8%539 W · 501 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Athletics | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Athletics | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed San Diego Padres | 36c | 49.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Athletics | 65c | 49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf886…d825backed San Diego Padres | 33c | 45.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Athletics | 69c | 45.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed San Diego Padres | 57c | 44.73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Athletics | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Athletics | 78c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked San Diego Padres | 34c | 38.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Athletics | 70c | 38.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Athletics | 68c | 30.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Athletics | 43c | 25.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb213…49e1backed Athletics | 79c | 25.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 129 | 56.6%73 W · 56 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed San Diego Padres | 77c | 24.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Athletics | 69c | 23.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6f…be20backed Athletics | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Athletics | 69c | 18.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 661 | 59.5%393 W · 268 L | +3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…3107backed Athletics | 68c | 17.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 125 | 72%90 W · 35 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)this page
- Athletics vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5Under won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 11.5Under won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Over won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Over won
- Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. San Diego PadresYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.