NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7af27378d80bc25423c86a902665c0b3b4d18635a28f69464d5eef6f98a9e02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,106
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,090
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,106 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Over | 53c | 8,888$4,711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,710.63 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 6,919$3,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,517.86 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Under | 48c | 5,760$2,765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,995.2 | 205 | 42.9%88 W · 117 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Under | 47c | 5,614$2,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,998.6 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 51c | 2,758$1,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,406.78 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Under | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98b5…e61fbacked Under | 53c | 1,895$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895.08 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaab8…a331backed Over | 55c | 1,636$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 49c | 1,227$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.96 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 46c | 1,161$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.47 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 47c | 1,117$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.01 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 47c | 1,016$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.63 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Over | 52c | 861.83$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.42 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 49c | 727.74$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.15 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 69c | 703$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.1 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 48c | 600.48$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.23 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27df…e67cbacked Over | 53c | 594.34$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 53c | 372.66$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.54 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Under | 47c | 304.13$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.19 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6611…17e7backed Under | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 47c | 106$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.18 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc89d…5909backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4556…2b35backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Over | 53c | 79$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.87 | 500 | 47.2%236 W · 264 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 48c | 70$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 47c | 43.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…dce6backed Under | 48c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5c…3d3abacked Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…0bb5backed Over | 55c | 37.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0bb…1918backed Under | 53c | 30.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…532bbacked Over | 52c | 30.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 49c | 22.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…80c9backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c48…7d6fbacked Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Under | 66c | 15.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Warriors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 228.5this page
- Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)Warriors won
- Warriors vs. CavaliersWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 226.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 227.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 229.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 230.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.