NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x284fb2449eff1982743ee051bd8256a5945e9d45c61c773b7a5aef8f8c9af95b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Warriorsof Cavaliers, Warriors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $119,307
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $111,110
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,307 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9cd5…ed17backed Warriors | 44c | 57,827$25,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,383.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Cavaliers | 54c | 19,822$10,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,680.41 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Warriors | 46c | 18,658$8,583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,075.37 | 267 | 53.2%142 W · 125 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2e…2ad2backed Cavaliers | 51c | 8,200$4,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,182 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a0…43cfbacked Warriors | 49c | 8,200$4,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,182 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51b6…efecbacked Cavaliers | 57c | 5,000$2,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,850 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52ed…8db7backed Cavaliers | 52c | 4,707$2,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,470.69 | 393 | 49.1%193 W · 200 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Warriors | 44c | 4,106$1,801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,305.38 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers | 26c | 3,359$877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877.01 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Cavaliers | 56c | 2,871$1,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,607.76 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Warriors | 44c | 2,400$1,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,349 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Warriors | 46c | 2,365$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,265.39 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Warriors | 48c | 2,030$965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,065.46 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Warriors | 48c | 1,896$915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$981.16 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Cavaliers | 54c | 1,891$1,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,028.05 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b6…922fbacked Cavaliers | 57c | 1,754$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Warriors | 48c | 1,540$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.58 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Cavaliers | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee7…0ba8backed Cavaliers | 50c | 964.27$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306a…0d29backed Cavaliers | 57c | 900$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…9498backed Warriors | 43c | 791.7$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.27 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Cavaliers | 57c | 745.77$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.6 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6de…95e8backed Cavaliers | 49c | 620$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.8 | 230 | 47%108 W · 122 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Cavaliers | 53c | 609.79$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.19 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Cavaliers | 49c | 503.92$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.92 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa89…6cb6backed Cavaliers | 56c | 500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…121dbacked Cavaliers | 51c | 431.37$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 315 | 51.7%163 W · 152 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Warriors | 44c | 400$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.32 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Cavaliers | 56c | 375.04$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.02 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d48…b9a1backed Cavaliers | 57c | 360$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.2 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Cavaliers | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 824 | 40.4%333 W · 491 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Warriors | 44c | 300$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Cavaliers | 57c | 289.96$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.12 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Cavaliers | 51c | 235.29$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffb…df76backed Cavaliers | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 470 | 48.5%228 W · 242 L | -18.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Cavaliers | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Warriors | 43c | 188.4$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.39 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Warriors | 50c | 175.6$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.8 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked Cavaliers | 57c | 134.06$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.41 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Warriors | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Cavaliers | 56c | 112$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.19 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21b2…b602backed Cavaliers | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Cavaliers | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 446 | 54.3%242 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4b…14e2backed Warriors | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e2…31e4backed Cavaliers | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 112 | 51.8%58 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…6296backed Cavaliers | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Cavaliers | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 227 | 56.8%129 W · 98 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Warriors | 46c | 80.67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.67 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…2332backed Cavaliers | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 121 | 55.4%67 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Cavaliers | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4970…21f6backed Warriors | 44c | 52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…a81dbacked Warriors | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef9…b5bfbacked Cavaliers | 56c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Warriors | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Cavaliers | 27c | 39.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Cavaliers | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Cavaliers | 52c | 35.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 659 | 50.8%335 W · 324 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…0755backed Cavaliers | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Warriors | 47c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19a7…3ec1backed Cavaliers | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5aa…1ebabacked Cavaliers | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d60…50dbbacked Cavaliers | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0bb…1918backed Cavaliers | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8e…1ef0backed Warriors | 48c | 22.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…4f30backed Cavaliers | 57c | 21.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 158 | 41.1%65 W · 93 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeabf…97e5backed Cavaliers | 57c | 20.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Cavaliers | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)this page
- Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)Warriors won
- Warriors vs. CavaliersWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 226.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 227.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 228.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 229.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 230.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.