NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 227.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98fc807f6bd32e8fb85b1c9a1917267d57444f448682b1dc8436d64d2d41d0ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,665
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,215
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,665 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd43c…04e8backed Under | 45c | 54,606$24,753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,853.46 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | -12.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 54c | 19,850$10,818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,818.2 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Over | 55c | 16,324$8,978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,978.1 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd29c…d4efbacked Under | 49c | 7,500$3,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,825 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9a…5ecebacked Over | 51c | 7,500$3,825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,825 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Under | 46c | 5,520$2,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,980.8 | 205 | 42.9%88 W · 117 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda5f…2e9bbacked Over | 55c | 4,886$2,687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,687.3 | 419 | 54.4%228 W · 191 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over | 50c | 4,473$2,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,221.55 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 55c | 4,158$2,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,266.11 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 54c | 3,505$1,901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900.75 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4278…0e92backed Over | 53c | 2,098$1,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,111.87 | 416 | 52.2%217 W · 199 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Under | 49c | 2,078$1,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,059.65 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Over | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 270 | 51.5%139 W · 131 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Over | 55c | 2,000$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090 | 446 | 54.3%242 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3414…067abacked Over | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 315 | 38.1%120 W · 195 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Under | 47c | 1,500$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.99 | 491 | 42.6%209 W · 282 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x159f…5862backed Under | 51c | 1,473$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.55 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…0a77backed Over | 53c | 1,274$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675 | 157 | 56.7%89 W · 68 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0c…7c83backed Over | 54c | 951.85$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -4.6wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 55c | 778$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.76 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 6c | 609.47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Under | 46c | 550$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 55c | 428$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.4 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Under | 45c | 417.82$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.8 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 55c | 400$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Over | 55c | 356$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.8 | 500 | 47.2%236 W · 264 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 45c | 258.42$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.25 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Over | 55c | 231.44$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.29 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 44c | 200$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 55c | 183$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.65 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…3ddcbacked Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 173 | 56.6%98 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15a3…718ebacked Under | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…b07dbacked Over | 55c | 127.27$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…5490backed Over | 55c | 120$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 288 | 56.9%164 W · 124 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ab…f2a9backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 227 | 56.8%129 W · 98 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf54a…e25dbacked Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59eb…fa33backed Over | 53c | 78.3$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 99 | 41.4%41 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 47c | 75.9$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.23 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…2e48backed Over | 55c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Over | 56c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 183 | 57.4%105 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…6ea7backed Over | 56c | 51.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…0755backed Over | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 50c | 49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa46d…59c4backed Over | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 121 | 49.6%60 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9952…4165backed Over | 55c | 39.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…ee41backed Under | 46c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd55…c9bfbacked Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5d…20c8backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3698…7160backed Over | 51c | 31.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…2cf3backed Under | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 849 | 57.6%489 W · 360 L | -52.1wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c1…090dbacked Over | 54c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Under | 76c | 20.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcad…0a68backed Over | 55c | 18.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Warriors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 227.5this page
- Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)Warriors won
- Warriors vs. CavaliersWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 226.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 228.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 229.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 230.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.