NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7238658ef91d5088551fc42237a016cda6cbbd7e449e3f8e2ee848a34b309fe7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Warriorsof Cavaliers, Warriors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,756
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,609
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,756 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Cavaliers | 52c | 4,578$2,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,380.55 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Warriors | 52c | 3,725$1,952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,772.5 | 220 | 53.6%118 W · 102 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Cavaliers | 47c | 2,932$1,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,378.21 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Warriors | 48c | 2,028$981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,046.9 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Warriors | 47c | 1,533$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.3 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Warriors | 46c | 1,500$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f8…09f7backed Cavaliers | 53c | 1,405$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744.58 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51e1…c98abacked Warriors | 48c | 1,158$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.33 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Warriors | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Cavaliers | 54c | 910.91$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.14 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Cavaliers | 52c | 836$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.36 | 156 | 53.8%84 W · 72 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Cavaliers | 50c | 718.87$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.87 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Cavaliers | 45c | 665.97$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.69 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Cavaliers | 51c | 574.79$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.28 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27df…e67cbacked Warriors | 55c | 572.73$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.73 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Warriors | 47c | 300$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Warriors | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Cavaliers | 52c | 224.76$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.63 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Cavaliers | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x586d…c5dcbacked Warriors | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Warriors | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed Warriors | 48c | 206.25$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.25 | 631 | 42%265 W · 366 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Cavaliers | 53c | 189.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…8ee2backed Warriors | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 207 | 54.1%112 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…b155backed Warriors | 48c | 156.25$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.25 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21b4…e064backed Warriors | 48c | 125.6$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.31 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…9498backed Warriors | 47c | 125.6$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.57 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Cavaliers | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 267 | 53.2%142 W · 125 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Cavaliers | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Warriors | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf2…06c2backed Cavaliers | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1351…bebcbacked Warriors | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5c…d9acbacked Cavaliers | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Cavaliers | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48f8…9166backed Warriors | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 171 | 45.6%78 W · 93 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…5c00backed Warriors | 48c | 83.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.59 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Cavaliers | 51c | 75.24$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.37 | 659 | 50.8%335 W · 324 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Warriors | 48c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 174 | 44.3%77 W · 97 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82d3…08bcbacked Warriors | 51c | 66.67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Warriors | 47c | 65.04$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.21 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc968…c59bbacked Warriors | 50c | 63.57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Cavaliers | 47c | 57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Warriors | 48c | 52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…4740backed Cavaliers | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 236 | 42.4%100 W · 136 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f77…8ca9backed Warriors | 48c | 39.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb53c…c76ebacked Warriors | 53c | 37.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 487 | 40.7%198 W · 289 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Cavaliers | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda23…5bc4backed Cavaliers | 53c | 35.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…97dfbacked Warriors | 55c | 30.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Warriors | 45c | 29.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…9971backed Warriors | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 281 | 56.2%158 W · 123 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…f12fbacked Warriors | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…6127backed Cavaliers | 61c | 24.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -19%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)this page
- Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)Warriors won
- Warriors vs. CavaliersWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 226.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 227.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 228.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 229.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 230.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.