MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7b06200ba56e907de8ffb605bcc4ce40565c6e09b9e6fa0aea8642ca4a829b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof Chicago Cubs, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,530
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,671
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,530 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds | 66c | 7,696$5,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,610.48 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 35c | 6,517$2,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,297.29 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 5,898$3,651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,247.04 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 4,391$1,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,639.99 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Cubs | 39c | 1,290$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.55 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Chicago Cubs | 34c | 940.02$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.77 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Chicago Cubs | 34c | 478$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.52 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Chicago Cubs | 4c | 442.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cincinnati Reds | 78c | 423.33$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.45 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Chicago Cubs | 51c | 394.63$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.26 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…93cebacked Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 333$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.83 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 230$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 227.41$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.79 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 204.14$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.82 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d00…7507backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 123.14$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.91 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Chicago Cubs | 36c | 114.19$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.11 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 112.2$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.95 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Chicago Cubs | 36c | 96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 83.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.35 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…069bbacked Chicago Cubs | 43c | 81.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Cincinnati Reds | 36c | 76.22$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.11 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Chicago Cubs | 34c | 72.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 72.71$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.73 | 208 | 52.9%110 W · 98 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 69.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Chicago Cubs | 16c | 65.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 61.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4436…cf98backed Chicago Cubs | 34c | 57.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -5.3wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -37%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Chicago Cubs | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…789abacked Chicago Cubs | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 39.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Chicago Cubs | 54c | 36.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Chicago Cubs | 39c | 36.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Chicago Cubs | 57c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 35.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Chicago Cubs | 35c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcde8…aa8fbacked Chicago Cubs | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b67…f13cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 28.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Chicago Cubs | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 19.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.