Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
South Alabama Jaguars vs. Texas State Bobcats
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7b10aa5f529b1571f1727090b94f85e849be50d7d89b79a6c788fbe41b7826f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texas State Bobcatsof South Alabama Jaguars, Texas State Bobcats
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,636
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,760
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,636 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5520…32ffbacked South Alabama Jaguars | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed South Alabama Jaguars | 64c | 1,835$1,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,165.75 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked South Alabama Jaguars | 25c | 1,008$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.97 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Texas State Bobcats | 59c | 1,002$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.68 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…f205backed South Alabama Jaguars | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed South Alabama Jaguars | 36c | 836.23$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.84 | 1,074 | 43.3%465 W · 609 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked South Alabama Jaguars | 40c | 700$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 294 | 44.6%131 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Texas State Bobcats | 35c | 661.94$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.46 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Texas State Bobcats | 53c | 536.65$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.47 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Texas State Bobcats | 35c | 532.79$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.88 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f61…9131backed Texas State Bobcats | 46c | 403.09$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.76 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Texas State Bobcats | 30c | 355.41$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.72 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked South Alabama Jaguars | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb04…3ce1backed South Alabama Jaguars | 56c | 299.99$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +154.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed South Alabama Jaguars | 43c | 271.59$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.94 | 480 | 51%245 W · 235 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed South Alabama Jaguars | 48c | 250$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Texas State Bobcats | 42c | 238.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.81 | 126 | 42.1%53 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…98f9backed Texas State Bobcats | 44c | 227.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.64 | 484 | 62.8%304 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed South Alabama Jaguars | 47c | 222.47$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.56 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked South Alabama Jaguars | 42c | 218$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.44 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed South Alabama Jaguars | 76c | 207.28$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.39 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked South Alabama Jaguars | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 270 | 48.1%130 W · 140 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Texas State Bobcats | 59c | 181$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.21 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e5…fe31backed South Alabama Jaguars | 20c | 165$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 95 | 4.2%4 W · 91 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -86%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked South Alabama Jaguars | 15c | 159.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 399 | 3.3%13 W · 386 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90eb…68dfbacked South Alabama Jaguars | 26c | 112.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Texas State Bobcats | 23c | 110.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.06 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c75…8c7abacked Texas State Bobcats | 40c | 67.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.12 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed South Alabama Jaguars | 45c | 62.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 490 | 43.1%211 W · 279 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Texas State Bobcats | 75c | 62.48$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 1,531 | 50.1%767 W · 764 L | +34.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f1…907dbacked South Alabama Jaguars | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Texas State Bobcats | 29c | 35.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 940 | 36.9%347 W · 593 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d0…902cbacked South Alabama Jaguars | 58c | 32.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec16…9257backed South Alabama Jaguars | 66c | 26.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Texas State Bobcats | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- South Alabama Jaguars vs. Texas State Bobcatsthis page
- South Alabama Jaguars vs. Texas State Bobcats: O/U 137.5Under won
- South Alabama Jaguars vs. Texas State Bobcats: O/U 138.5Under won
- Spread: Texas State Bobcats (-2.5)South Alabama Jaguars won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.