CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: HyperSpirit vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #16 Group C
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7be1953d0452257dac55c44d1a3ee9c3046984da1e1de62f46b29ef1e3867ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- HyperSpiritof HyperSpirit, Ursa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,956
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,196
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,956 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2733…ac38backed HyperSpirit | 70c | 1,043$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.3 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed Ursa | 30c | 823.6$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.93 | 260 | 46.9%122 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc187…42f9backed HyperSpirit | 74c | 635.9$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.21 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Ursa | 43c | 612.92$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.45 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Ursa | 23c | 475.85$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.78 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Ursa | 50c | 465.62$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.6 | 1,779 | 59.1%1,052 W · 727 L | +104.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed HyperSpirit | 40c | 464.2$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.22 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed Ursa | 47c | 443.25$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.83 | 398 | 51.3%204 W · 194 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed HyperSpirit | 46c | 427.91$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.29 | 1,378 | 45.2%623 W · 755 L | +17.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Ursa | 11c | 377.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.31 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Ursa | 29c | 237.1$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.81 | 2,221 | 41.3%917 W · 1,304 L | -22.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3584…e59dbacked Ursa | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Ursa | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa57…2ec9backed HyperSpirit | 73c | 199.09$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.75 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ed…4ec5backed HyperSpirit | 40c | 198.71$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.71 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Ursa | 11c | 161.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 1,181 | 22.5%266 W · 915 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed HyperSpirit | 47c | 160.32$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.77 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cd…61a6backed HyperSpirit | 41c | 150$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.5 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked HyperSpirit | 38c | 125.89$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.1 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Ursa | 62c | 120.89$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.95 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed HyperSpirit | 38c | 73.68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.68 | 240 | 38.3%92 W · 148 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Ursa | 59c | 72.37$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 980 | 52.4%514 W · 466 L | +26.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed HyperSpirit | 45c | 69.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 248 | 50.4%125 W · 123 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…c0d4backed HyperSpirit | 71c | 67.41$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…cbe2backed HyperSpirit | 45c | 66.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7068…8bfcbacked Ursa | 64c | 62.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Ursa | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,281 | 37.8%484 W · 797 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57fb…1336backed HyperSpirit | 62c | 57.64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40d7…615fbacked HyperSpirit | 42c | 57.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked HyperSpirit | 60c | 53.03$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 1,393 | 65.9%918 W · 475 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61b…e7babacked HyperSpirit | 65c | 48.86$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd887…808dbacked Ursa | 26c | 47.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed Ursa | 59c | 47.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 315 | 32.4%102 W · 213 L | -15.2wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Ursa | 33c | 46.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 2,102 | 16.8%353 W · 1,749 L | -286.5wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa22a…41d5backed HyperSpirit | 57c | 35.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1d…fc19backed Ursa | 43c | 34.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 155 | 61.3%95 W · 60 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39f7…919bbacked HyperSpirit | 65c | 32.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7d…e2d8backed Ursa | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a41…145fbacked Ursa | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked HyperSpirit | 35c | 30.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,352 | 52%703 W · 649 L | +29.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ca…e87abacked HyperSpirit | 69c | 28.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Ursa | 63c | 27.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 250 | 45.2%113 W · 137 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b2…2e58backed Ursa | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6de0…ea80backed Ursa | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 196 | 55.1%108 W · 88 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: HyperSpirit vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #16 Group Cthis page
- Counter-Strike: HyperSpirit vs Ursa - Map 1 WinnerHyperSpirit won
- Counter-Strike: HyperSpirit vs Ursa - Map 2 WinnerHyperSpirit won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.