NHL · resolved market
Blues vs. Oilers: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7d9b57f4a81477c3a6745fd07704b869072a848ceb6f38c129285cb4bf777bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,193
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,529
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,193 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Over | 60c | 6,100$3,645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,645.09 | 304 | 47.4%144 W · 160 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 40c | 3,467$1,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,078.43 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Under | 41c | 1,836$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.52 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Under | 40c | 1,627$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$976.29 | 282 | 51.8%146 W · 136 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1969…a09cbacked Over | 60c | 667$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.2 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 43c | 623.11$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.06 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 54c | 462.99$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.02 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Over | 55c | 444$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.2 | 119 | 33.6%40 W · 79 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 272.75$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.14 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaee…4229backed Under | 38c | 260.13$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +162.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 41c | 238.65$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.91 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 60c | 170$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 624 | 47.3%295 W · 329 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Over | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 45c | 141.12$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.51 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbf…6631backed Over | 62c | 119.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.39 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Over | 61c | 114.75$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Under | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…9a86backed Under | 41c | 87$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.33 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 60c | 66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43c6…4870backed Under | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Over | 67c | 60.61$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.61 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Over | 65c | 60.52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.34 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 40c | 59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.69 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Under | 37c | 55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 349 | 49.9%174 W · 175 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 55c | 50.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc079…8881backed Under | 45c | 50.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3945…7077backed Over | 58c | 46.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 59c | 42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Over | 63c | 34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 153 | 54.9%84 W · 69 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 62c | 33.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 39c | 29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x886b…73d1backed Over | 60c | 26.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 61cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 60c | 26.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…c71fbacked Over | 57c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Over | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 62 | 71%44 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 61c | 18.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Blues vs. Oilers: O/U 5.5this page
- Blues vs. OilersOilers won
- Blues vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Oilers (-1.5)Oilers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.