Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7e5f15ce48d90d5a7001416e89cc02e747322c38c4382ec0928bb2f942918cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,434
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,628
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,434 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 27c | 561.99$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.02 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 58c | 173.36$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.28 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 69c | 163.4$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.43 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 56c | 162.05$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.6 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 22c | 158.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 35c | 146.22$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.24 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 135.44$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.78 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed No | 49c | 121.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.24 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 47c | 120.69$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 70c | 117.19$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.55 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 38c | 115.23$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.28 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 33c | 113.83$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.38 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 33c | 105.73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.56 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 72c | 100.3$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.69 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 32c | 93.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.55 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…4f06backed No | 64c | 90.04$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.63 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 67c | 87.95$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 85.5$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.23 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8adf…48cdbacked Yes | 61c | 80.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -6.2wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 67c | 80.48$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.65 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 31c | 79.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.04 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 34c | 79.54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.79 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 33c | 75.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.96 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 33c | 75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 46c | 67.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed No | 74c | 65.07$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.43 | 167 | 64.1%107 W · 60 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Yes | 38c | 61.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.65 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf954…dec8backed Yes | 33c | 59.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.19 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1746…24a5backed Yes | 34c | 58.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.73 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 20c | 58.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd561…d81dbacked Yes | 34c | 56.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 68c | 53.72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94d1…0501backed Yes | 38c | 53.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 62c | 52.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 33c | 50.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.61 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 25c | 50.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 26c | 48.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b3…13e5backed Yes | 39c | 48.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10a4…d3d1backed Yes | 62c | 46.21$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…8f81backed Yes | 43c | 44.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes | 32c | 42.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 36c | 41.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 35c | 41.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 62c | 40.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 29c | 39.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 34c | 39.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 67c | 39.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 36c | 38.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f44…c470backed Yes | 40c | 38.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 29c | 38.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe058…cf72backed Yes | 39c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24b7…4a73backed No | 68c | 36.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 67c | 34.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 32c | 34.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 36c | 33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 45c | 32.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 38c | 31.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes | 35c | 29.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 107 | 32.7%35 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca35…2440backed No | 65c | 29.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 71c | 28.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 60c | 28.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 38c | 28.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 71c | 28.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 63c | 27.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd2…b6dcbacked Yes | 38c | 26.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +82%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 72c | 26.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77d0…6f1fbacked No | 60c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +119.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 65c | 20.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 62c | 18.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 77c | 17.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 61c | 16.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x87e9…6df4backed Yes | 63c | 16.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C or higher on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 5°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 6°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.