Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x519f98f413ab6c8c63858cea3288f3bdd6725f2fd34d1229f66d79a5ff359f99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,462
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,527
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,462 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 17c | 601.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.07 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 3c | 525.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 5c | 392.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 228.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 6c | 222.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 27c | 205.65$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.64 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 203.28$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 33c | 198.22$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.41 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 14c | 191.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 189.9$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.04 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 76c | 183.53$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.01 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 69c | 173.46$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.58 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 37c | 161.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.86 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 156.71$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.41 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 52c | 153.12$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.39 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf32f…b708backed Yes | 65c | 148.98$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.48 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 144.37$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 33c | 144.23$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfedf…ee2abacked Yes | 32c | 142.89$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.39 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 54c | 130.16$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.96 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe262…4097backed Yes | 54c | 126.88$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.43 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 12c | 125.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0209…e1a8backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 121.03$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.1 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94d1…0501backed Yes | 54c | 113.15$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 36c | 105.23$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 68c | 102.55$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 28c | 101.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 26c | 99.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked Yes | 56c | 99.2$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.78 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 75c | 98.35$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 52c | 91.93$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.59 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 27c | 91.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 33c | 85.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 74c | 73.09$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1c…c73bbacked Yes | 24c | 69.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 56.93$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 47c | 56.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.06 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 45c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b3…13e5backed Yes | 34c | 54.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Yes | 44c | 54.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda18…4282backed No | 43c | 52.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 57c | 52.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 34c | 51.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…2cfebacked Yes | 37c | 50.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 29c | 50.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 26c | 49.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…75f6backed Yes | 25c | 45.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 165 | 18.2%30 W · 135 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 34c | 45.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 64c | 40.85$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 57c | 40.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 42c | 39.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 44c | 39.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff4…bd7dbacked No | 72c | 38.62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe058…cf72backed Yes | 30c | 36.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe239…fadbbacked No | 71c | 35.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…f641backed No | 74c | 33.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 44c | 33.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f44…c470backed Yes | 50c | 32.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…c5aabacked No | 70c | 31.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed No | 64c | 30.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcafd…b861backed No | 75c | 30.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 72 | 72.2%52 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 69c | 29.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 49c | 29.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed No | 67c | 27.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…5cb9backed Yes | 58c | 24.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebee…7f68backed Yes | 46c | 24.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 95 | 29.5%28 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24b7…4a73backed No | 70c | 19.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 58c | 19.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05a0…636abacked No | 57c | 19.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77d0…6f1fbacked No | 64c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +119.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 73c | 15.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C or higher on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 5°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 6°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on April 1?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.