Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7f9662a311acb24a2c0384dfd5eb92257c25ad6c5ed378f40301136e49714df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,678
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,722
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,678 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 386.77$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.41 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 25c | 376.6$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.96 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 64c | 282.99$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.01 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 4c | 256.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 73c | 232.06$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.4 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc31f…f04abacked Yes | 36c | 200.95$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.95 | 62 | 79%49 W · 13 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 79c | 200.8$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.63 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 20c | 150.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.27 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x001c…e5edbacked Yes | 78c | 140.79$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.47 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…463dbacked Yes | 28c | 112.11$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.42 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 61c | 110$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.1 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 46c | 97.38$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes | 44c | 91.94$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.94 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 82.41$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.9 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 66c | 81.53$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.81 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed No | 64c | 77.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 43c | 75.89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.35 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 22c | 66.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.66 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 27c | 63.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.33 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 36c | 61.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.51 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 61.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 29c | 61.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 69c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 20c | 54.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.82 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked No | 65c | 49.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 56c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed Yes | 30c | 37.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 56c | 35.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 35.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 49c | 34.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 50c | 33.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 64c | 32.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 34c | 30.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 63c | 28.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 35c | 28.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 39c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…efaebacked No | 78c | 21.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f74…a12fbacked No | 67c | 16.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C or higher on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.