Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d1f2178f9e4dcdfccb902832b8316f293fd28d4dbe43526e2cc1a6992f17f1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,899
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,481
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,899 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7439…b8efbacked Yes | 21c | 484.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 59c | 405.2$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.31 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 23c | 279.88$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.24 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28b9…427cbacked No | 70c | 273$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.96 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 58c | 272.15$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.8 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 29c | 252.43$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.74 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 42c | 233.46$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.69 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 42c | 227.27$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.4 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed Yes | 63c | 199.08$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.52 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +10.6wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4118…d2ffbacked Yes | 71c | 168.23$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 153.76$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.03 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed Yes | 30c | 141.61$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.08 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 72c | 138.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 68c | 123.52$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.14 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 38c | 120$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 80c | 111$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 32c | 110.35$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.37 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 46c | 104.25$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.07 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 69c | 98.12$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.02 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 97.62$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.47 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 26c | 82.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.35 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 30c | 80$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.69 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 46c | 80$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x001c…e5edbacked Yes | 60c | 78.66$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 24c | 77.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.99 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…76aebacked Yes | 65c | 70.49$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.52 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 71c | 70.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 54c | 66.57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.62 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 63c | 65.81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.51 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 78c | 64.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 80c | 62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 28c | 61.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 42c | 55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 77c | 53.19$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 71c | 52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed No | 59c | 49.85$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 57c | 48.15$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 60c | 48.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6012…900fbacked No | 57c | 43.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 46c | 43.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 72c | 43.39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 42c | 43.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cf…b443backed Yes | 46c | 43.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 42c | 42.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…4beabacked Yes | 77c | 39.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 73 | 68.5%50 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 57c | 38.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 70c | 37.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 47c | 35.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 40c | 34.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 47c | 34.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 41c | 33.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 40c | 33.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 58c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 32.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 41c | 32.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 44c | 31.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 60c | 30.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 66c | 29.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x290d…dc40backed Yes | 72c | 29.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 45c | 29.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb52…ef8abacked No | 60c | 28.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4b…c3e6backed Yes | 70c | 28.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 66cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 39c | 25.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe24d…4e75backed No | 65c | 23.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 54c | 22.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 20.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x599f…3317backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 125 | 78.4%98 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed Yes | 59c | 19.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +15.0wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 58c | 17.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d29…5b7dbacked Yes | 67c | 17.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed Yes | 75c | 15.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 97 | 69.1%67 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on August 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C or higher on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.