TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Seattle Marinersof San Francisco Giants, Seattle Mariners
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,220
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,395

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,220 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed San Francisco Giants36c2,874$1,033 inLost-$1,033.2210,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd942…f9d3backed Seattle Mariners55c1,804$988 inWon+$816.1412152.9%64 W · 57 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Seattle Mariners68c1,115$757 inWon+$357.674,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Seattle Mariners71c916.95$651 inWon+$265.8511,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed San Francisco Giants46c776.39$361 inLost-$360.94,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ce8…4dd6backed Seattle Mariners68c740.29$504 inWon+$236.743551.4%18 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked San Francisco Giants24c288$69 inLost-$69.121,01450.4%511 W · 503 L+52.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x28f7…404dbacked Seattle Mariners50c76$38 inWon+$3847646.2%220 W · 256 L+0.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Seattle Mariners67c56.69$38 inWon+$18.891,20558.8%708 W · 497 L+31.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed San Francisco Giants43c56$24 inLost-$24.083,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed San Francisco Giants36c45$16 inLost-$16.428,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3a8d…d241backed Seattle Mariners78c29$23 inWon+$6.413677.8%28 W · 8 L+8.1wins+0.23per pick55cpaid+40%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x8ea0…86b1backed Seattle Mariners72c25$18 inWon+$73574.3%26 W · 9 L+6.0wins+0.17per pick57cpaid+29.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x74f9…6024backed Seattle Mariners79c20$16 inWon+$4.2516057.5%92 W · 68 L+12.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+15.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.