MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8ed3a14d272927ea4b69fa2091ede3ea54d0a9133a497ab195ffefd621f8355
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof Seattle Mariners, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,573
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,031
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,573 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Seattle Mariners | 30c | 11,517$3,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,061.82 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked San Francisco Giants | 70c | 10,340$7,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,238 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Francisco Giants | 69c | 9,081$6,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,250.09 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Seattle Mariners | 30c | 5,615$1,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,921.8 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Seattle Mariners | 45c | 1,932$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,062.66 | 501 | 53.5%268 W · 233 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed San Francisco Giants | 61c | 1,640$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.98 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Seattle Mariners | 39c | 1,628$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$993.21 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Seattle Mariners | 44c | 1,500$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Seattle Mariners | 43c | 1,157$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.15 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0844…f46abacked San Francisco Giants | 55c | 865.78$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.52 | 168 | 48.2%81 W · 87 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 837.13$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.79 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed San Francisco Giants | 55c | 792$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.6 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Seattle Mariners | 44c | 782.13$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.99 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 599.99$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 535.71$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35f1…e67bbacked Seattle Mariners | 39c | 512.95$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.95 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Seattle Mariners | 29c | 402.15$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.36 | 143 | 28.7%41 W · 102 L | -11.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Seattle Mariners | 29c | 336$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.56 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked San Francisco Giants | 56c | 300$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Francisco Giants | 57c | 300$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed San Francisco Giants | 57c | 226.02$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.46 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Seattle Mariners | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Seattle Mariners | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed San Francisco Giants | 57c | 200.65$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.37 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 181.71$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.21 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 180.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.38 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfa…8b61backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 162$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.82 | 135 | 45.2%61 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 121.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.68 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 109.76$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.76 | 413 | 46.7%193 W · 220 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 109.76$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.76 | 286 | 39.2%112 W · 174 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Seattle Mariners | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 158 | 48.7%77 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Seattle Mariners | 44c | 100.68$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked San Francisco Giants | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a64…683ebacked San Francisco Giants | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3146…d153backed Seattle Mariners | 44c | 99.31$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.41 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Seattle Mariners | 30c | 96.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.75 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c7…b8e1backed San Francisco Giants | 57c | 95.84$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.63 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 95.71$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.56 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Seattle Mariners | 31c | 94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.04 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164f…deb3backed San Francisco Giants | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…7137backed San Francisco Giants | 55c | 83.64$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Seattle Mariners | 44c | 72.73$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.73 | 404 | 47.8%193 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked San Francisco Giants | 55c | 66.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Seattle Mariners | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 54.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.08 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…cc67backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33d2…9ac2backed San Francisco Giants | 69c | 44.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 41.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked San Francisco Giants | 55c | 38.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Seattle Mariners | 42c | 38.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Seattle Mariners | 32c | 38.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58c…3a5cbacked Seattle Mariners | 46c | 34.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 32.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 135 | 58.5%79 W · 56 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…f2e5backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 26.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +10.0wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea0…86b1backed San Francisco Giants | 74c | 25.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d57…8e0cbacked San Francisco Giants | 57c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked San Francisco Giants | 76c | 16.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 1,813 | 49.1%891 W · 922 L | -26.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle MarinersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.