MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf80ffbe8614b7ed2bd92681c85839959e1997a3427ffc73bd62df6b8295d8f13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,176
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,176 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 47c | 43,406$20,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,354.44 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Under | 53c | 37,310$19,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,535.83 | 505 | 53.5%270 W · 235 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5234…4c4fbacked Over | 49c | 22,383$10,967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,967.43 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c0a…a9bebacked Under | 52c | 8,000$4,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,840 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 51c | 7,704$3,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,772.1 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 51c | 4,402$2,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,170.53 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 51c | 4,349$2,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,130.94 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 51c | 2,368$1,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,157.46 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9870…b9d3backed Over | 65c | 2,309$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 2,280$1,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,013.89 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 35c | 2,276$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,479.64 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 51c | 2,000$1,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$973.33 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 48c | 1,271$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.84 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 51c | 920$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.6 | 686 | 52.9%363 W · 323 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Over | 49c | 842.31$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.73 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 48c | 785.98$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.27 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…3457backed Over | 50c | 695.29$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.65 | 281 | 54.4%153 W · 128 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Under | 52c | 646.3$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.22 | 507 | 51.7%262 W · 245 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…f012backed Under | 59c | 514.43$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.77 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 49c | 505$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.45 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 41c | 495.19$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.03 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd3…5896backed Under | 51c | 490$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.1 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 51c | 418.23$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.93 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 34c | 410.19$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.47 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…8210backed Over | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 47c | 379.97$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.44 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 52c | 358.18$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.87 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3565…0b17backed Over | 50c | 320$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 48c | 250$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 785 | 50.2%394 W · 391 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 51c | 209$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.41 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 49c | 205$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 1,445 | 50%723 W · 722 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 249 | 50.6%126 W · 123 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed Under | 51c | 153.95$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Under | 52c | 144.94$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.57 | 848 | 40.2%341 W · 507 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 51c | 135$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.21 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Over | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Over | 43c | 107.46$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.81 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9586…de67backed Over | 48c | 96.97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.41 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 53c | 75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Over | 49c | 71.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…9e64backed Over | 49c | 62.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 49c | 62.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 883 | 49.3%435 W · 448 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Under | 51c | 61.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 47c | 60.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Under | 56c | 58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Under | 54c | 57.81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 55c | 52.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Over | 47c | 50.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 509 | 54%275 W · 234 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 51c | 49.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ff…ec82backed Under | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 215 | 54.9%118 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 40c | 46.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8f…16e1backed Over | 47c | 42.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a37…4daebacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cb…a917backed Under | 52c | 38.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 207 | 51.2%106 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0439…3f80backed Under | 53c | 37.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Over | 49c | 37.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 51c | 34.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0293…f15bbacked Over | 49c | 34.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 51c | 33.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95e4…5134backed Under | 54c | 31.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 49c | 30.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cc…015bbacked Under | 51c | 30.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c0…5dd2backed Under | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 184 | 58.2%107 W · 77 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 55c | 29.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 1,374 | 54.2%745 W · 629 L | +16.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf80…b6e3backed Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Under | 52c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 71c | 27.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Under | 52c | 26.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 383 | 52.2%200 W · 183 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…b692backed Over | 47c | 25.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 50c | 22.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 800 | 52%416 W · 384 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 51c | 21.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cdf…fdc1backed Under | 51c | 20.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…c356backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 156 | 48.7%76 W · 80 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x248a…7e6cbacked Under | 53c | 18.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red SoxTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.