Bundesliga · resolved market
VfB Stuttgart vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf833a6b282c2ec7a250d4d8f0149fc5a51675d9f0bc334adb91b0d5079abdd58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,835
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,835 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e16…a795backed Under | 69c | 11,071$7,639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,432.03 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 31c | 6,740$2,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,089.4 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 76c | 1,437$1,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.32 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf277…9a5fbacked Under | 77c | 1,299$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.7 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc39…1564backed Over | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Over | 32c | 937.5$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Over | 28c | 876.01$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.62 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea00…c1f1backed Over | 31c | 658.65$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.18 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 69c | 652.17$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.17 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 31c | 493.34$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 33c | 464$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.58 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 24c | 439.74$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 69c | 434.78$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.78 | 79 | 67.1%53 W · 26 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 31c | 428.06$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.99 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 31c | 415.81$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.34 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0050…336cbacked Under | 69c | 362.32$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.32 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c8…2925backed Under | 71c | 352.32$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Over | 31c | 300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 228 | 54.8%125 W · 103 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over | 31c | 300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc16f…0f4fbacked Over | 29c | 274.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.75 | 108 | 55.6%60 W · 48 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Over | 31c | 250$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +11.0wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 32c | 248.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.68 | 220 | 47.3%104 W · 116 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Over | 31c | 230$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.3 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +9.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…4a1fbacked Over | 31c | 210$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 31c | 199.07$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.71 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Under | 70c | 193$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.9 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…bbf0backed Over | 31c | 180.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.11 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 18c | 180.03$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 32c | 157.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.41 | 206 | 45.6%94 W · 112 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 30c | 153.14$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.94 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd810…2eb8backed Over | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 25c | 137.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 147 | 34.7%51 W · 96 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Over | 31c | 120$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | +11.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Over | 31c | 120$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 124 | 58.9%73 W · 51 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90f9…e894backed Over | 31c | 120$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…692abacked Over | 20c | 108.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41d4…a401backed Under | 70c | 108.24$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d27…676ebacked Over | 33c | 90$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +147.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 32c | 82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…a9f7backed Over | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5af1…f988backed Over | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 31c | 72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…54f0backed Under | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 70c | 68.71$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x874f…b0a5backed Under | 70c | 60.06$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6afd…5cb1backed Over | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 117 | 59.8%70 W · 47 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 31c | 59.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1066…a2cabacked Under | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 69cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e87…20cabacked Under | 69c | 51.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…d695backed Over | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 110 | 63.6%70 W · 40 L | +13.6wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7718…4c1bbacked Over | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x261c…d49dbacked Under | 69c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 73cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7a…3ce8backed Under | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6a…5192backed Under | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…8bcbbacked Over | 30c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Under | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5037…a863backed Under | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Under | 73c | 16.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 70c | 16.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…7f64backed Under | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2aa…2c12backed Under | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfB Stuttgart vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: RB Leipzig (-2.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)RB Leipzig won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-2.5)RB Leipzig won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. RB Leipzig: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 1.5Under won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 2.5Under won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.