MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf858d0d20ae9b91d6cdca9c8ff8de9d2e1fbdc838c5a0c5c02ab733c55680d15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof San Diego Padres, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,229
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,386
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,229 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed San Diego Padres | 47c | 3,377$1,593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,593.43 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a7…fc82backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 1,945$1,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$914.25 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed San Diego Padres | 19c | 974.12$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.04 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 846.4$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.81 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed San Diego Padres | 55c | 618.62$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.17 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 524.78$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.8 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 432.07$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.87 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 80c | 352.75$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.55 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 324.49$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.51 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed San Diego Padres | 46c | 210.35$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.76 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…7c1dbacked San Diego Padres | 47c | 206$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.82 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 12c | 198.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.52 | 123 | 49.6%61 W · 62 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 73c | 185.21$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.28 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 15c | 159.81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.31 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed San Diego Padres | 13c | 144.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 14c | 139.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.4 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 11c | 112.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.81 | 80 | 32.5%26 W · 54 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 15c | 103.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.92 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…b55dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 97.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.09 | 29 | 86.2%25 W · 4 L | +8.3wins | +0.29per pick | 58cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 85.19$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.03 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 80c | 80.03$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Diego Padres | 55c | 67.83$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked San Diego Padres | 47c | 61.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed San Diego Padres | 46c | 49.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 47.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 45.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 459 | 52.9%243 W · 216 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed San Diego Padres | 45c | 42.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed San Diego Padres | 47c | 38.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 30.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 50c | 22.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0437…30f4backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 21.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x009a…339ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 55c | 21.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 80c | 19.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 268 | 54.1%145 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 12.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 13.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 15.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 19.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 20.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Arizona DiamondbacksNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.